Divisional Round: Colts @ Chiefs

After a dominant performance in Houston, the Colts travel to Missouri for a conference semi-final against the Kansas City Chiefs. Let’s take a quick look back at last week to see what brought us here.

On wildcard weekend, Indianapolis was firing on all cylinders. On the offensive side, the Colts held the ball for over 16 minutes in the first half. This allowed for three touchdown drives, and kept Deshaun Watson and the Houston offense on the bench. Two Andrew Luck touchdown passes to Eric Ebron and Dontrelle Inman, and a 2 yard Marlon Mack touchdown run were all that Indianapolis needed due to an excellent defensive day.

On the defensive side, the Colts nearly pitched a shutout. On the Texans lone scoring play, wide receiver Keke Coutee seemed to have released the ball and fumble into the end zone, which would have kept the Texans off the scoreboard, as the play would have resulted as a touchback. As it was, the play stood as called on the field for the touchdown.

The Texans had no answers for Indianapolis, and the Colts rolled to a 21-7 victory in Houston. When the Colts face the Chiefs on Saturday, their mantras will remain the same, which are to have an obsession to finish, and get to 1-0 this week. This team has essentially been playing playoff football since week 7. At 1-5, Indianapolis knew that they needed a mentality change if they hoped to have any shot at the post season. “1-0” may be simple, and may be generic, and it’s not the first time a coaching staff has used the mantra, but this young Indianapolis team has responded in a huge way, by winning 10 of their last 11 games.

This week the Colts walk into a toxic environment. A stadium with deafening noise, a high octane offense, and a team with a big chip on their shoulder. See, the Kansas City Chiefs haven’t won a playoff game in Arrowhead Stadium in 25 years! To put that in perspective, the last time the Chiefs won a home playoff game was when gas was $1.11 per gallon, George Bush Senior was president, and I was in diapers. Every team wants to win, but I’m not sure any playoff team needs a home playoff win more the Kansas City. Not to mention that their head coach, Andy Reid, has also had his run of playoff struggles. Reid is 11-13 in career playoff games with only 1 Super Bowl appearance (lost to Patriots in SB XXXIX 24-21). In fact, Reid only has one playoff victory as the Chiefs head coach, which came in 2015, when Kansas City bested the Houston Texans in the wildcard round.

So, the history is in favor of Indianapolis. Not only does Kansas City have a poor record at home, and have a coach that is perennially bad in the playoffs, but the Colts also have a lot of postseason success against the Chiefs. Dating back to 1995, the Colts have never lost to Kansas City in the playoffs, going 4-0 in that stretch. In the overall series history, Indianapolis leads the Chiefs 16-9, and the Chiefs were a stepping stone on the way to a Colts Super Bowl run in 2006.

With all of this winning though, it might be time for Kansas City revenge. Heartache has befallen the Chiefs organization for what seems like forever, as they have alway seemed to have a great team, but fall short in the playoffs. Could this be the year they break the Colts curse? I don’t think so, and here are five reasons why:

1) The Chiefs defense is bad. How bad you ask? Well, the Chiefs give up an average of 26.3 points per game (24th), rank 31st in Yards against, and give up an astonishing 5 yards per rushing attempt (only the Los Angeles Rams give up more (5.1). With a running back that just gouged the league’s top rushing defense to the tune of 148 rushing yards, that’s bad new for this Kansas City defense. They might have had a saving grace in their pass rush, because they actually led the league with 52 sacks. I say might have, because even though the Chiefs can get to the quarterback, Andrew Luck is an expert at pre-snap reads, not to mention the Colts offensive line is the leagues’ best at preventing sacks. They’ve only given up 18 all season, including last week’s wildcard matchup against Houston.

2) To piggyback on the Chiefs defense being bad, the Colts offense is very good. Averaging 27.1 points per game is just the tip of the iceberg for these Colts. Ranking 2nd in passing touchdowns, 6th in passing yards are a little deeper, but what has really impressed me over the last few weeks is Indy’s ability to kill the clock. Long sustained drives are what I believe will be the death of this Chiefs team. If the Colts run the ball with effectiveness, Andrew Luck can orchestrate quarter long drives. Drives like this will keep the Kansas City offense cold in the cold snowy weather expected for Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday. Which brings me to my next point.

3) Snowy weather will win the day. An offense that is productive on the ground is dangerous. An offense that can run in the snow is unstoppable. The Colts have a few things going for them in this snowy scenario, the first is that Marlon Mack is an elusive back that can eat up yards. If he can be a mudder on Saturday, that’s a big win for the Colts offense. The second is that, the Colts defense hasn’t given up a 100 yard rushing performance to anyone. Should that trend continue, it might force Mahomes to try an make plays that aren’t there. Indianapolis has forced at least one turnover in 16 of 17 games this year. So, the odds are likely that Mahomes will slip up at least once.

4) The Indianapolis secondary is underrated. When cornerbacks Pierre Desir and Kenny Moore II shut down Deandre Hopkins in Houston for the second time this season, it wasn’t a fluke. The duo has been solid for several weeks now, and has only matured over the course of the season. Add in safeties Malik Hooker and Clayton Geathers, and you have a defensive backfield that is capable of giving Patrick Mahomes fits. If Indy can get pressure on Mahomes, this secondary is ready to pounce on big play opportunities.

5) Andrew Luck. Need I say more? Ok, I will. If anyone is able to keep pace with the guy who threw the most touchdowns this year, it’s the guy who threw the second most touchdowns this year. Luck has had a career season, but more than that, his career is loaded with 4th quarter comebacks, game winning touchdowns, shootout victories, and long methodical drives. Andrew Luck has also been to the playoffs before, and has won against a high powered Chiefs offense.

My prediction: My prediction is that bodies at rest stay at rest, and the Chiefs look slow in the snow coming off of their bye. The Colts practiced outdoors this week to prepare for the cold weather, and judging by the shorts Quenton Nelson was wearing, it didn’t faze them a bit. With an offensive running game that is on point, and a defensive squad that is capable of timely turnovers, I’ve got the Colts stealing one in Arrowhead 31-28 behind an Adam Vinatieri game winner.

Photo Credit: Rob Carr SB Nation

Wildcard Weekend: Colts @ Texans

Of all the games this weekend, this one looks to be the most even of all. With each of their regular season games being decided by just a field goal, the Colts and Texans will square off in Houston tomorrow for a rubber match.

In their first matchup of the season, the Texans had controlled most of the game, and had a commanding 28-10 lead in the 3rd quarter. However, Andrew Luck and the Colts offense would not go away so easily, as the offense went on a 21-3 run to force overtime.

In overtime, the Colts would get the ball first and run a 13 play drive generating just 50 yards, finally settling for a 44 yard Adam Vinatieri field goal, and putting the score at 34-31. On the ensuing Texans’ drive, the Colts defense held Deshaun Watson out of the end zone, and forced a 29 yard Fairbairn field goal.

Then it got real interesting. Facing a 4th and 4 on their own 43 yard line, Head Coach Frank Reich decider to take a gamble. He kept the offense on the field. One incomplete pass to Chester Rogers later, gave the Texans unbelievable field position. 4 plays later, Houston stole a win in Indianapolis with a Fairbairn field goal. many fans were left scratching their heads, and wondered why the Colts didn’t punt. The answer to that came during the postgame press conference, as the Indianapolis locker room echoed the same thing, ” We wanted to play to win, not to tie.”

The second round of this fight went much smoother for the Colts. After both teams stumbled out of the gate offensively, the Texans struck first. A late first quarter run by Alfred Blue, gave Houston a 7-0 run. It wasn’t until 6:33 left in the second that Indianapolis put up their first points with a 4 yard Marlon Mack rush. The score was set up by a 60 bomb from Luck to T.Y. Hilton on the previous play. Hilton would go on to finish with 9 receptions for 199 yards! That was the big momentum shift the Colts needed, as they went on to score 10 more points in the second, to take a 17-7 lead into halftime.

Coming out from the half, the Houston offense looked to have shaken off their own rust, as Deshaun Watson orchestrated a 16 play, 75 yard drive, capped by a 1 yard push into the end zone by Houston running back Lamar Miller. The drive took nearly 7 1/2 minutes off of the clock, but didn’t cool off the Colts, as they responded on the very next drive.

Indianapolis would go on a 75 yard drive of their own, and answer Houston’s score with an Andrew Luck strike to wide receiver Zach Pascal in the corner of the end zone from 12 yards out. The Colts would keep a 24-14 lead until late in the 4th, when Deshaun Watson found Deandre Hopkins in the back of the end zone with just 2:37 left in regulation.

Houston chose to trust their defense instead of attempting the onside kick. Things looked good for the Houston defense, until an Andrew Luck hard count got linebacker Jedeveon Clowney to jump offsides on a 3rd and 1 at the Indianapolis 48. The penalty allowed the Colts to drain the remaining time off of the clock and spoil the Texans’ comeback attempt.

Now we gear up for round 3. Here is the stat breakdown for this wildcard battle:

– Each team claimed an away victory in the regular season.

– Scoring Offense: IND-5th/HOU-15th

– Points Against Defense: IND-10th/HOU-T 4th

– Offensive Line Rank: IND-1st/HOU-32nd

– Defense Sacks: IND-19th (38)/HOU-12th (43)

– Turnovers: IND-T 22nd (24)/HOU-T 3rd (16)

– Takeaways: IND-T 10th (26)/HOU-4th (29)

– Team Rushing Yards: IND-20th/HOU-8th

– Team Passing Yards: IND-6th/HOU-17th

– Pass Defense Yards: IND-16th/HOU-28th

– Rush Defense Yards: IND-8th/HOU-3rd

As you can see, on paper, these teams are about as evenly matched as they come. Where one team has a weakness the other has a strength, and vice versa. This makes the decision for this game very difficult, and it may come down to who has the ball last. I’m going to go with the Colts in this one for a few reasons. I’ll list three.

The first reason: I think Indy is one of the few teams that can contain Deandre Hopkins. With a depleted wide receiver group due to injury, Indianapolis held Hopkins to just 36 yards on 4 catches in their last game in Houston. If they can get that kind of production from their secondary this weekend, that takes away a huge part of the Houston offense.

The second reason: The Colts have proven to be effective pass rushers against the awful Texans offensive line. Houston has given up a league worst 62 sacks on the year, and the Colts can take credit for 12 of those. I’ll be expecting to see Deshaun Watson rattled again this weekend.

The third reason: The Colts are capable of winning ugly. Playing against a division opponent is never easy, especially on the road, in the rain, in prime time. However, the Colts managed to do just that, and overcame 12 penalties and two turnovers in what was essentially a playoff game last weekend. I credit the Indianapolis offense for slowing the game down, and dictating the pace. The Colts steamrolled the Titans in time of possession, as the chewed up over 40 minutes of game time. The best defense was a good offense, and I think they’ll take that confidence into Houston.

My prediction: With the reasons above, and the fact that Andrew Luck has advanced further in the playoffs every time he’s been there, I’ve got Indy winning this one 34-24.

Photo Credit: John Glaser-USA TODAY Sports

Week 16 preview: Colts vs Giants

This week the New York Giants bring a 5-8 record to Indianapolis, and while they have been eliminated from the playoffs, they are still very capable of pulling off an upset. The Giants started off in a slump, beginning the season with a 1-7 record. Now, they have won four out of their last 6 games, and hope to finish on a strong note heading into the offseason. Two games this year by the Giants include going on the road to beat the current AFC South leading Houston Texans, and besting the NFC North champion Chicago Bears at home. It’s also worth noting that 6 of New York’s losses have been by 7 points or less.

As the season has gone on, quarterback Eli Manning and rookie running back Saquon Barkley have built solid chemistry, as Barkley has caught 82 passes from Manning, for 654 yards and 4 touchdowns. Barkley has also had a very successful rookie campaign running the ball, as he has tallied 1,155 yards (3rd in NFL) and 9 touchdowns (tied for 5th in NFL). Barkley will be the second top 5 running back the Colts will face in as many weeks.

There are a couple items of concern for the Giants. The first, wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. has been out for last two weeks, is trending towards missing this week’s game as well. The second, the Giants missed OBJ last week, as the New York offense put up a goose egg against the Tennessee Titans, falling 17-0 and effectively knocking them out of playoff contention. Not having OBJ would be a huge loss for a Giants team that will have to face a top 10 Colts defense this Sunday. In fact, since week 7, the Colts are the number 1 defense in yards against, and only have one game all season in which they haven’t forced at least 1 turnover. Over the last three games, they’ve been even more impressive, as they’ve averaged just 9 points against. This week will feature a unique battle of rookie of the year candidates when Saquon Barkley faces off against Darius Leonard. Leonard is currently leading the NFL with 146 tackles to go along with his 7 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, 6 pass deflections, and 1 interception.

On the offensive side, Indianapolis is operating like a well oiled machine. They currently rank 8th in points per game (26.6) and total yards per game (381.5), as well as 7th in passing yards per game. (273.6) Andrew Luck ranks second in the NFL in touchdown passes with 34, and the Colts’ offensive line is tied for first in the NFL with just 16 sacks given up on the year. Indianapolis also has 2 Pro Bowl selections. The first is veteran Eric Ebron, who is having not only a career year for himself, but has set Colts franchise records for receiving touchdowns and total touchdowns as a tight end (12 and 13 respectfully). The other Pro Bowler is rookie guard Quenton Nelson, who made headlines earlier this season as the NFL offensive rookie of the month in October. This was the first time the award had been given to a guard in NFL history, which certainly speaks volumes about his level of play and character on and off the field.

Overall, I believe Indianapolis is the more complete team in this matchup. Especially if Odell Beckham Jr. misses his third straight game to a quad injury, look for Indianapolis to pull ahead early and stay there. With the Tennessee Titans likely looking at a win against the banged up Washington Redskins this weekend, and the Baltimore Ravens facing a tough opponent in the Los Angeles Chargers, the Colts and Titans could be playing for a wildcard spot in week 17. This week, I’ve got Indianapolis winning this one 28-17.

Photo Credit: Michael Hickey-Getty Images

Week 14 preview: Colts @ Texans

The final month of regular season play has arrived, and both the Colts and Texans are vying for playoff spots. For the Texans, a win would extend their lead in the AFC South to a virtually insurmountable distance. For the Colts, this game is a must win if they hope to stay in the running for a potential AFC wildcard spot.

After beginning the season 0-3, the Houston Texans have been the hottest team in the NFL. Reeling off nine straight victories, the Texans have propelled themselves to the top of the AFC South, and the #3 seed in the AFC playoff race. Second year quarterback Deshaun Watson leads the way for Houston, as he has passed for 3,031 yards and posts a 21:9 touchdown to interception ratio. Watson has also added another 375 yards on the ground, as well as two rushing touchdowns. However, Watson is not the only playmaker on Houston’s roster. Game-breaking talent is found at nearly every position on both the offense and defense. Whether it’s the tandem of Pro Bowl receivers Deandre Hopkins and Demaryius Thomas, or All Pro defensive end JJ Watt, or elite safety Tyrann Mathieu, it’s clear that this team is loaded with talent.

The Texans offense currently ranks 12th in the NFL in both points per game (25.2), and yards per game (374). They also rank 3rd in rushing yards per game (140.8). A weak spot though, surprisingly seems to be the passing game. With just 233.2 yards per game, Houston ranks just 22nd in the NFL.

On the defensive side, the Texans are even better. Ranked in the top 10 in points (19.6), rushing yards (91.3), and total yards allowed per game (341.5), the Houston defense continues to be one of the more imposing to match up against.

As impressive as stats like this may be, the Colts can play confident in this week’s game knowing they took this team to the wire in week 4, and may have tied, if not for a gutsy Frank Reich decision to go for it on 4th down in the Colts own territory. Some things have changed since then. The Texans did trade for wide receiver Demaryius Thomas among other transactions, but the Colts offensive line looks a lot different from week 4, and Indianapolis will have running back Marlon Mack in the lineup this go around. T.Y. Hilton also missed some playing time during the Colts’ and Texans’ last meeting, as he was in and out during the game, while nursing hamstring and shoulder injuries. Perhaps Indianapolis can be the beginning and the end of the Texans long winning streak. To do so, they’ll need to play much better than they did last time these teams met. For Indy to pull the upset, I believe 3 things have to happen in order to pull out the victory:

1) Protect Luck and Protect the Ball: The Colts started their last game against Houston off with a 7 play 75 yard touchdown drive, and forced Texans to punt on their opening possession. The next Indianapolis possession was not so graceful. Two plays into the drive, linebacker Jadeveon Clowney recovered an Andrew Luck fumble and took it in for a Texans’ touchdown. From then on, Indianapolis was fighting momentum. Luck fumbled again late in the second quarter (again the result of poor pass blocking). Two plays later, Houston found themselves leading 21-7. The Colts fell behind 28-10 at one point, but 14 of Houston’s points could have been erased if Indy had simply held on to the ball. It wasn’t until the Colts forced a turnover of their own, that they reclaimed momentum to spark a comeback and force overtime.

Control Time of Possession: Its worth noting, that in Houston’s three losses this year, they failed to win the time of possession battle in each of those games. For this matchup, I’d like to see the Colts make long, methodical drives in order to take the playmaking ability of Deshaun Watson away for as much as possible. If the Colts can keep the Houston offense sidelined, they have a good shot at pulling this one out.

Run the ball effectively: During their week 4 matchup with Houston, Indianapolis found themselves in a hole, the could only be dug out with a career day by Andrew Luck. Luck posted career highs in yards (464), completions (40), and attempts (62), and finished with 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in a ridiculous Madden-esque stat line. With Marlon Mack in the lineup for this game, and both Jordan Wilkins and Nyhiem Hines having had solid playing time this season, Indianapolis should unleash their 3-headed monster to the fullest extent.

It was a little unnerving to see the Colts post a goose egg last week against Jacksonville. With another top 10 defense to play this week, the Colts are forced to have a short memory. Judging by the week 4 meeting of these teams, a barn burner isn’t off of the table, but I feel as if the score will be a bit more tame this go around. Each team recognizes this as a critical game for playoff positioning, and that why I believe they will be much more conservative in their play calling. I don’t think we’ll see Frank Reich go for it on as many 4th downs, but instead take the points if available. That being said, I like the Texans in this game, simply because I believe they have a more well rounded team. Household names like JJ Watt, Deshaun Watson, Jedeveon Clowney, and Deandre Hopkins likely made game planning for this team a nightmare. This week, I have Houston winning, (but not without an Indianapolis fight) 24-20, and pushing their winning streak to 10.

Photo Credit: USAToday.com

Game Preview: Colts @ Jaguars

After their bye week and three straight home games, the Colts are taking their first road trip since traveling to Oakland in October. The forecast for tomorrow calls for thunderstorms in the Jacksonville area, so it will be interesting to see if the elements play a factor, especially for an indoor team like the Colts.

Since their week 10 matchup in Indianapolis, this Jaguars team has a wildly different look. Earlier this week, quarterback Blake Bortles was benched in favor of Cody Kessler, they fired their offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, Leonard Fournette landed a 1-game suspension after landing a couple punches against the Buffalo Bills, Guard Andrew Norwell was placed on the Injured Reserve, and last but not least, cornerback Jalen Ramsey is questionable (due to injury) to play after starting every game in his NFL career.

As you can see, that’s a lot of changes so I’ll break them down one at a time.

Bortles: Pulling Bortles this week is a bit puzzling to me because, Bortles has historically put up solid numbers against the Colts. Even in the week 10 loss, Bortles threw for 320 yards and 2 touchdowns. Bortles career stats against Indianapolis are 187 of 302, 61.9% completion percentage, 2384 yards, and 14:3 touchdown to interception ratio. He does have a losing record against the Colts overall (4-5), but boasts a 3-1 record in home games against Indy. Cody Kessler has one game of regular season action this year (against Houston Texans), and the results were so-so. On that day Kessler finished 21-30, for 1 touchdown, 1 interception, 1 fumble, and was sacked 4 times in a 20-7 defeat.

Nathaniel Hackett: After coaching a sixth ranked offense that propelled the Jaguars to the AFC championship, many people expected more out of Hackett this year. Unfortunately for him, his offense took a nosedive this year. Falling to 22nd overall in total offense, having to fight through numerous injuries, and overcome poor quarterback play, Hackett just couldn’t hack it in Jacksonville. This Sunday, his former duties will be taken over by quarterbacks coach and interim offensive coordinator Scott Milanovich.

Leonard Fournette: Well, it seems as if the Jaguars’ season of frustration materialized in the form of a Fournette fist fight last week. The second year running back, who has spent much of the season sidelined with a hamstring injury, lost his temper during a loss against the Buffalo Bills. Losing is tough at any point. Jacksonville started out 3-1, and had Super Bowl aspirations to begin the year, but they have now fallen to 3-8, and are in the mix for a top 10 draft pick. The raw emotion of that disappointment has reared it’s ugly head, and the Jaguars are no better for it.

Andrew Norwell: The highest paid guard in the NFL, will unfortunately be sidelined for the rest of the 2018 season. An ankle injury sustained in Sunday’s loss to the Buffalo Bills adds to the seemingly never ending list of injuries to the Jacksonville offensive line. Left tackle Cam Robinson, Center Brandon Linder, and backup left tackle Josh Wells were all critical losses. Norwell seems to be the final nail in the coffin for this beat up o-line. Good luck back there Cody Kessler!

Jalen Ramsey: One of the NFL’s most talented young cornerbacks could miss the first game of his career on Sunday. Starting the week off with back-to-back “Did Not Practice” designations, the All-Pro finally logged a limited practice on Friday. Ramsey will be listed as questionable, with no word on whether he will even be available.

The Colts are not without their own set of injuries this week. Jack Doyle’s season came to an end this week, as he suffered a kidney injury that came at the end of Indianapolis’ win against the Miami Dolphins. The tight end spot, which had been a great position for depth, became much more shallow this week. Tight end Mo Alie-Cox is listed as OUT for this week’s matchup as well. This leaves Indy with Eric Ebron, and either Ryan Hewitt or Eric Swoope to fill the TE2 gap. Center Ryan Kelly will miss this week as well. After sustaining a knee injury against Miami, Kelly was unable to practice all week. Quite a few names are listed on the “questionable” designation, but most names in the list should play. The biggest concern of the “questionable” list is probably running back Marlon Mack, who is making his way back from a concussion.

Now that you’re all caught up, let’s talk about this weekend’s game. With all of the changes that Jacksonville has endured just over the course of this week, I have trouble believing they’ll be as competitive as a Bortles-led team. Granted, Kessler has some playing time this year, but changing coordinators and having to deal will several key injuries/suspensions to offensive players will be Cody Kessler’s bane this weekend. I’ll be looking for Darius Leonard, Malik Hooker and the rest of the Colts’ defense to force several turnovers.

For the Colts offense, sticking to fundamentals and just finding a way to move the chains will be critical. It’s supposed to be rainy and sloppy and gross. This week Indianapolis has to protect the ball and figure out a way to be effective on the ground. I think the rain might slow down this fast paced offense a little bit, so maintaining possession with slow methodical drives will be imperative. Andrew Luck has thrown at least 3 touchdowns in 8 straight games. This week however, Luck might need to take a back seat to his running backs and let them keep the ball dry. In week 10, Colts running backs ran for 85 yards on 16 carries, including a big 53 yard scamper by Jordan Wilkins. They’ll need that kind of big play production this week against a defense that still ranks 9th overall.

I think this game might be a lot closer that many may want to believe. If the elements play a factor in this game, Indianapolis’ fast offense, may have to take what the conditions give them. That being said, I don’t think a banged up Cody Kessler-led offense out duels Andrew Luck and company. I’ve got Indianapolis winning their 6th straight to stay close behind Houston in the AFC South hunt.

Indianapolis: 24 Jacksonville: 13

Photo credit: Colts.com

Week 12 preview: Colts vs Dolphins

After starting off the season 3-0, the Miami Dolphins have swum into colder waters since. Having dropped 4 of their last 5, they find themselves competing for a wildcard spot, and are two games behind the New England Patriots (7-3) in the AFC East. Miami is a bit hard to pin down. They’ve shown the ability to beat a top team like the Chicago Bears (who are 8-3), but have also been locked in tight battles or lost to sub-par teams like the Raiders and Lions. A lot of that probably has to do with Miami missing quarterback Ryan Tannehill who has not played since week 5 against the Cincinnati Bengals. Up to that point Tannehill was playing pretty solid football. In five games played, he’s logged just under 1,000 yards, 8 touchdown passes, and has completed over 65% of his passes. While Brock Osweiler was serviceable in Tannehill’s absence, I’m sure the Dolphins are happy to have their starter back under center. Despite the recent slide, this Miami Dolphins team is not without its playmakers.

On the defense, star linebacker Kiko Alonso is currently second in the NFL in combined tackles (89), which sits behind only the Colts’ own Darius Leonard (104). Alonso has been playing very well in pass coverage this season, as he has compiled 6 pass deflections as well as 3 interceptions. He has also forced 3 fumbles this year.

On the offensive side, the Dolphins have a solid left tackle in Leremy Tunsil, that will help protect Ryan Tannehill’s blind side. Tunsil hasn’t allowed a sack all season, but did miss last weeks’ matchup against the Green Bay Packers. We’ll see if the week off will do anything to dampen his stellar performance this year. This will also be a return to Indianapolis for veteran Frank Gore. Gore 528 yards on the ground this year and is averaging 4.5 yards per carry. While his yardage isn’t incredible this year, his ability hasn’t faded, and can’t be looked past by this Indianapolis defense.

For Indianapolis, they’ll be playing their third straight home game, and bring a four game winning streak into week 12. Right now, the Colts offense is firing on all cylinders, as they are averaging 36.5 points per game during their winning streak. The defense has also done their part, as they are giving up just 17.25 points per game and have forced 9 turnovers over the same stretch. There are multiple reasons for the Colts awakening from their 1-5 slumber. To start, Andrew Luck is playing MVP level football. Luck has 7 straight games of 3 or more passing touchdowns, and now has 29 touchdowns on the year.

One reason Luck’s stats are so good? The Indianapolis offensive line. The Colts have only given up 10 sacks this year (2nd in NFL and 1st in AFC). More impressive, is that they haven’t given up any sacks in the last 5 games. A clean pocket for Luck equals points on the board for the Colts. Another reason for the boost in Luck’s touchdown production is the excellent communication he has with Eric Ebron and the rest of his tight end group. Luck has connected 15 times for touchdowns to his tight ends, and a big part of that number is Eric Ebron having a career year. Ebron leads all NFL tight ends with 9 receiving touchdowns and also has 1 rushing touchdown.

As the Colts take the field today, they find themselves in a similar scenario as the Dolphins at this point in the season. Both teams are 5-5, both are tied for an AFC wildcard spot (with Titans, Bengals, and Ravens as well), and both are in second place in their respective divisions. The difference, is that Indianapolis is trending upwards, and Miami the opposite. As they meet at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday afternoon, both teams recognize this game could have major playoff implications.

My prediction: Miami has struggled on offense as of late. Averaging just 16 points over the last 3 games, Ryan Tannehill’s return couldn’t come at a better time. That being said, I don’t believe Tannehill will be able to cover up enough holes to keep the Indianapolis defense from collecting turnovers. The Colts defense has logged at least 1 turnover in every game this season, and I don’t think the Dolphins will put an end to that streak. The Colts offense is red hot right now, as they’re averaging over 36 points per game over their last 3. A hot offense paired with a defense who turns the ball over is a nightmare for opposing teams. I’ve got Indianapolis winning this one 34-20, and improving to 6-5 on the year.

Photo Credit: Andy Lyons/ Getty Images

Week 11 Preview: Colts vs Titans

Another week of Colts football is upon us! This week, Indianapolis will play host to the Tennessee Titans who are coming off an impressive 34-10 drubbing of the New England Patriots. In that game, the Titans’ defense was suffocating, causing the Patriots to punt on 6 of 12 possessions. They also forced a turnover on downs, and kept Tom Brady and company from scoring on drives just before halftime and the end of the game. Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski missed a 52 yard attempt as well, as the Titans defense successfully kept the Patriots from scoring on 10 of their 12 possessions. Tom Brady looked rattled in this matchup, and his stats show it. Tennessee was able to get sacks on Brady 3 times as well as 7 total quarterback pressures. They also forced 4 pass deflections. Brady ended the day, going 21-41 for 254 yards 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions with a quarterback rating of just 29.5.

In today’s game, Indianapolis will face an obviously talented Titans defense who rank towards the top in most categories. They rank 1st overall in points allowed per game (16.8), 6th in yards allowed per game (328), 6th in pass yards allowed per game (228.2), and 11th in run defense with 99.8 yards allowed per game.

This is a team that is built a lot like the Jacksonville Jaguars team we saw Indianapolis play last Sunday. Defensively, this is a team that has playmakers and recognizable names at every level. In the secondary, cornerbacks Adoree Jackson and Malcom Butler will try and keep Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton from getting in rhythm, in the linebacker group, names like Wesley Woodyard and Brian Orakpo will try and keep the talented Colts tight ends contained, and on the defensive line, tackles Jurrell Casey and Austin Johnson will attempt to break through Indianapolis’ #2 ranked offensive line.

The Titans also have another, more unfortunate commonality with the Jaguars. Outside of last week’s win, the Titans offense has ranked near the bottom of the NFL this season in most categories. They’ve only managed 15 offensive touchdowns this season, and four of those touchdowns came in last week’s game. In points per game, they rank 28th (18.7), in total yards per game they are 30th (299), their 184.6 pass yards per game ranks 30th, and lastly, they rank 14th in rushing yards per game with 114.4.

Now that we’re familiar with our opponent, let’s take a look at what the Colts’ stats look like going into this week. Indianapolis brings a dynamic offensive attack, with the ability to put up a lot of points. Currently, the Colts rank 6th in the NFL in points per game (28.9), and quarterback Andrew Luck is second in passing touchdowns with 26. Luck also has a nice touchdown streak going, as he has compiled 6 straight performances of 3 or more passing touchdowns. This streak has only been matched twice in NFL history by quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Other offensive numbers for the Colts include, 9th in total yards per game (379.8), 12th in passing yards per game (266.2), and 15th in rushing yards per game (113.6).

Defensively, the Colts have been kind of a mixed bag. They’ve shown this season that they can force a lot of turnovers, as they posted 5 in one game (vs Buffalo Bills), but they’ve also shown that they lack depth in the secondary, as they’ve yielded as many as 17 completions in a row to opposing quarterbacks (Derek Carr/ Oakland Raiders). They’ve been great at getting to the quarterback one week, but follow up with a zero pressure performance the next. It has been a bit puzzling and frustrating at times for fans like myself, and I’m sure the same can be said of the players and coaching staff. One defensive thing has been consistent over the Colts winning streak however. The ability to create clutch turnovers in the closing minutes has been there in every win. They dismantled the Bills 37-5, and every turnover was a momentum boost in that game, in the matchup vs the Oakland Raiders, it was defensive rookie of the year candidate Darius Leonard punching the ball from Doug Martin’s arms, and against Jacksonville, it was cornerback Kenny Moore III that forced a fumble on the Jaguars final drive to survive a comeback attempt in the final two minutes. Perhaps Frank Reich’s mantra of having, “an obsession to finish” is finally sinking in. These Colts are buying what Reich in selling, and that has been very evident during the past few games.

My prediction:

I find this matchup to be eerily similar to the game played just a week ago in Lucas Oil Stadium. The stats and style of play the Titans and Jaguars have is almost indistinguishable. I think if the Colts can get off to a fast start as they did last week, then they’ll have a very good shot at climbing the AFC South ladder to second place this week. I see both teams ending the day at 5-5 as I’ve got Indianapolis winning this one 28-17.

Photo Credit: Stacey Revere/Getty Images

Week 10 preview: Colts vs Jaguars

Coming off of two straight victories and a bye week, Indianapolis begins a three game home stand, that starts with the Jacksonville Jaguars. This will be just the second divisional matchup this season for the Colts. They dropped an overtime game against the Houston Texans back in late September. This will also be just the fourth home game for the Colts. After completing five of their eight away games in the first half of the season, they have a favorable second half schedule that, more or less, allows them to control their own destiny. Five divisional matchups are set over the final eight games, including one against the AFC South leading Texans. Also, they play just one team with a winning record in the final stretch (Miami Dolphins 5-4).

Sunday, Jacksonville arrives in Indianapolis bringing along a four game losing streak, after beginning the season 3-1. They also bring an offense that ranks near the bottom of the league in most categories. Ranking 30th in points per game (16.8), 22nd in total yards per game ( 352.5), and 25th in rushing yards per game (95), the Jaguars struggling offense is just what the Indianapolis defense is hoping to feed on. Tied for 3rd in fumble recoveries and 10th in interceptions, this Colts defense has exhibited a significant hunger the ball this season.

On the defensive side of the ball, it’s a far different story for the Jaguars, as they rank in the top 10 in nearly every category. With stats like Total yards against (1st), passing yards against (1st), points against (8th), the Jacksonville defense will be one of the most formidable opponents the Colts have seen so far.

Where the Colts may find an edge is in the rushing game. Jacksonville is giving up 123.3 rushing yards per game (24th). What is significant about that, is that Indianapolis has compiled 220+ yards on the ground in each of their last two games, and as long as their trio of running backs (Mack, Hines, and Wilkins) stay healthy, there doesn’t seem to be any sign of them slowing down. Marlon Mack especially has been effective lately, as he has raced his way to 258 rushing yards over the last two games.

Indianapolis will certainly have to play their best offensive football of the year in this game. One year ago, the Jaguars came into Lucas Oil Stadium and shut out the Jacoby Brissett led Colts, while decimating the offensive line to the tune of 10 sacks. Now, this Colts offensive line is much improved in 2018. Indianapolis has given up just one sack in their last 4 games. In fact, they’ve given up just 8 sacks all year, which ranks 2nd, behind only the New Orleans Saints. This has not only allowed for the recent running game explosion, but has also given Andrew Luck the time to throw 23 touchdowns, which ranks 2nd in the NFL. The Colts also rank 6th in points per game with 28.6.

Its the classic story of high powered offense vs stout and aggressive defense. In this game, I predict that Indianapolis will try and pound the rock as much as possible. Getting the ground game going early and setting the pace will be essential for the Colts’ success. Limiting mistakes (especially turnovers) will also be critical. The Colts are 1-4 this year when they turn the ball over, compared to 2-1 when they don’t. It’s also notable that if not for an excellent 4th quarter goal line stand by the Eagles, the Colts could be looking at 3-0 in that category.

All in all, I think this one will be a fairly low scoring affair. Defensively, the Jaguars are an imposing team with a lot of Pro Bowl level talent and recognizable names at nearly every position. On the line, Nose Tackle Marcell Dareus will try and plug up the middle while defensive ends Yannick Ngakoue and Calais Campbell will try to create an intimidating pass rush. In the linebacking core, Middle Linebacker Myles Jack has the speed and athleticism to take away a lot of the underneath passing routes, and cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye will try and keep Andrew Luck from stretching the field with receivers T.Y. Hilton and Chester Rogers.

My prediction:

I’ve got Indianapolis winning an OT nail-biter to get their first AFC South division win.

Jacksonville 17 Indianapolis 20

Picture credit: BleacherReport.com

Game Preview: Colts @ Raiders

The Indianapolis Colts season may have hit a huge turning point last weekend. Throttling the Buffalo Bills 37-5 must have felt great for a team who has struggled to finish out games this year. At 2-5, the Colts are still last in the AFC South, but they have a bit of optimism from last week’s convincing win. Putting up 37 points is good any week, but to do it against a top 10 defense is even better. The Indianapolis offense exploded on the ground for 220 rushing yards, and was also incredibly efficient through the air, as Andrew Luck threw for four touchdowns and zero interceptions.

This week, they’ll take their momentum out west, when they travel to Oakland to play the Raiders. Oakland has been under construction this year, as their front office has gutted many of their star players. Trades of linebacker Khalil Mack to the Bears, and wide receiver Amari Cooper to the Cowboys have changed the identity of the Raiders completely. Oakland also received disappointing injury news, as they were forced to put running back Marshawn Lynch on the injured reserve. The trades were not without their rewards though. The Raiders now own 3 first round draft picks for 2019, and two more for 2020. That’s some serious leverage for potential trades during the offseason, but also amazing to have if they actually decide to keep the picks. Either way, it will be interesting to see how their choices unfold come April during the 2019 draft.

Draft picks won’t help them win this year though. The Raiders are 1-5, and seem to be on a collision course for the league’s worst record. It almost seems as if they’re intentionally throwing the season to set themselves up for the draft. A risky decision, that could turn out to be the Colts benefit this weekend.

Even before the Amari Cooper trade, the Raiders look pretty rough on paper, starting with quarterback Derek Carr. Carr’s stats, have been underwhelming this season, as his ratio of 7 touchdowns to 8 interceptions leave much to be desired. The running game hasn’t helped out much either, as Oakland is only averaging 92.5 yards per game on the ground (25th in NFL). With Indy’s defense showing up big last week with 5 turnovers, the Raiders may have to take a more conservative approach to stay competitive in this game. The offense of the Raiders hasn’t been there all year. Putting up just 18.3 points per game (28th in NFL), I don’t see them keeping pace with an Indianapolis offense that is 10th in scoring with 27 points per game. Even worse, the Raiders defense led by defensive coordinator Paul Guenther, is giving up 29.3 points per game, which ranks 29th in the NFL.

All of the stats seem to trend towards an Indianapolis victory this week. Andrew Luck is second in passing touchdowns, Marlon Mack is coming off a great rushing performance of 120+ yards, Jack Doyle is returning this week giving the Colts their healthiest offensive lineup this year, and the Indianapolis defense is fired up after forcing 5 turnovers last weekend. The Colts have a lot of momentum, and I don’t see this Raiders team getting in the way of that. I look for Indianapolis to take a much needed two game winning streak into the bye, and keep hope alive for their battle in the AFC South.

My prediction:

Colts: 35 Raiders: 20

Photo Credit: IndyStar.com

Week 6 preview: Colts (1-4) @ Jets (2-3)

With their fourth away contest in the first six games, Indianapolis will travel to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ. Awaiting them will be a young Jets team coming off a big, 34-16 win against the Denver Broncos in week 5. This Jets team, led by rookie quarterback Sam Darnold, is a bit of a mystery. After destroying the Detroit Lions in week 1 by a score of 48-17, the Jets had been on a 3 game slide before their win against Denver.

Sam Darnold has just been so-so since taking the reins in week 1. His first career game started off great. Completing 76% of his passes and throwing 2 touchdowns in his debut, he seemed to be making a smooth transition to the NFL. Now having completed just 55.7% of his passes on the season, those stellar week 1 numbers have heavily declined. Darnold ranks 33rd among eligible quarterbacks in completion percentage, 21st in passing yards (1,066), and is tied for 20th in passing touchdowns with 7.

Where the Jets are succeeding however, is on the ground. New York has two of the top twenty running backs in Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell. Crowell, coming off a career high 219 rushing yards (15 carries) on Sunday, finds himself ranked 3rd in the NFL in yards (390), 2nd in yards per attempt (6.8), and tied for 2nd in touchdowns with 5. Powell adds another 264 yards (18th) on 59 carries, as a right hook in the Jets 1-2 punch.

The keys to success for Indianapolis, will be as follows:

1) Make the rookie throw: Taking away the running game, and forcing the Jets to be one-dimensional will be critical for a Colts defense who has given up 534 yards on the ground. With Sam Darnold’s passing stats not especially spectacular (7:6 TD/INT ratio), forcing him to throw is the Colts best chance at stopping this Jets offense. Hopefully, after a 10 day break between games, the Colts can return several starters. A brutal barrage of injuries has set them back for the past two games. With all of those injuries, Indianapolis only managed to get one quarterback pressure on Tom Brady in their week 5 game against the New England Patriots. After a few weeks of heartbreaking 4th quarter and overtime losses, the Colts are desperately searching for some good fortune.

2) Don’t drop the ball: Watching the Colts fall behind 24-3 in the first half of last week’s game was rough. Watching wide receiver Zach Pascal drop and deflect a pass that led to an interception on a potential game tying drive, was gut wrenching. Andrew Luck can’t be expected to catch his own passes, and this injury ridden Colts receiving core is dropping a lot of passes. Conservatively counting, the Colts have dropped over a dozen passes in the last two games. A few of those being first downs, while others were dropped in the end zone. Cleaning up the drops is a necessity any week, but especially now, due to Indianapolis being at the bottom of the AFC South and quickly falling out of playoff contention.

3) Control time of possession: Colts rank 30th in time of possession with an average of 27 minutes and 12 seconds, and over the last 3 games its hovered around 25 minutes. Less time with the ball, means less opportunities to put points on the board. What I think we would all like to see is a nice methodical approach, and long lasting drives that end in touchdowns.

4) Continued pass protection: Indianapolis has only given up 10 sacks this year, despite the carousel on the offensive line. Andrew Luck will see his fifth different offensive line this season on Sunday. Rookie guards, Quenton Nelson (6th overall pick) and Braden Smith (37th overall) have performed even better than anticipated and pass protection is excellent so far this year. Luck has had a clean pocket to pass from for most of the season. Solid run blocking however, has been hard to find. Indianapolis ranks 29th in average rushing yards per game (74.4), 27th in yards per attempt (3.7), and tied for 28th in rushing touchdowns with a single Nyheim Hines score. With the return of left tackle Anthony Castonzo and running back Marlon Mack this week, the Colts will hopefully have a boost in their rushing attack.

5) Rush the ball effectively: See point number 4. The Colts can’t seem to get out of their own way when it comes to running the ball. Sometimes it seems as if they’re being stuffed on every attempt, while other times they’ll be breaking off good chunks of yardage, but fumbles or holding penalties negate the good plays. The Colts need to find away to get pressure off of Luck so he won’t have to throw 50+ passes a game, and the easiest way to do that is finding a way tote the rock.

Overall, I think this game will be a grind, but as long as the defense can contain the run, I have Indianapolis squeaking out a win late.

I’m calling this one 23-20 Indianapolis.

Photo Credit: Colts.com