Game Preview: Colts @ Jaguars

After their bye week and three straight home games, the Colts are taking their first road trip since traveling to Oakland in October. The forecast for tomorrow calls for thunderstorms in the Jacksonville area, so it will be interesting to see if the elements play a factor, especially for an indoor team like the Colts.

Since their week 10 matchup in Indianapolis, this Jaguars team has a wildly different look. Earlier this week, quarterback Blake Bortles was benched in favor of Cody Kessler, they fired their offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, Leonard Fournette landed a 1-game suspension after landing a couple punches against the Buffalo Bills, Guard Andrew Norwell was placed on the Injured Reserve, and last but not least, cornerback Jalen Ramsey is questionable (due to injury) to play after starting every game in his NFL career.

As you can see, that’s a lot of changes so I’ll break them down one at a time.

Bortles: Pulling Bortles this week is a bit puzzling to me because, Bortles has historically put up solid numbers against the Colts. Even in the week 10 loss, Bortles threw for 320 yards and 2 touchdowns. Bortles career stats against Indianapolis are 187 of 302, 61.9% completion percentage, 2384 yards, and 14:3 touchdown to interception ratio. He does have a losing record against the Colts overall (4-5), but boasts a 3-1 record in home games against Indy. Cody Kessler has one game of regular season action this year (against Houston Texans), and the results were so-so. On that day Kessler finished 21-30, for 1 touchdown, 1 interception, 1 fumble, and was sacked 4 times in a 20-7 defeat.

Nathaniel Hackett: After coaching a sixth ranked offense that propelled the Jaguars to the AFC championship, many people expected more out of Hackett this year. Unfortunately for him, his offense took a nosedive this year. Falling to 22nd overall in total offense, having to fight through numerous injuries, and overcome poor quarterback play, Hackett just couldn’t hack it in Jacksonville. This Sunday, his former duties will be taken over by quarterbacks coach and interim offensive coordinator Scott Milanovich.

Leonard Fournette: Well, it seems as if the Jaguars’ season of frustration materialized in the form of a Fournette fist fight last week. The second year running back, who has spent much of the season sidelined with a hamstring injury, lost his temper during a loss against the Buffalo Bills. Losing is tough at any point. Jacksonville started out 3-1, and had Super Bowl aspirations to begin the year, but they have now fallen to 3-8, and are in the mix for a top 10 draft pick. The raw emotion of that disappointment has reared it’s ugly head, and the Jaguars are no better for it.

Andrew Norwell: The highest paid guard in the NFL, will unfortunately be sidelined for the rest of the 2018 season. An ankle injury sustained in Sunday’s loss to the Buffalo Bills adds to the seemingly never ending list of injuries to the Jacksonville offensive line. Left tackle Cam Robinson, Center Brandon Linder, and backup left tackle Josh Wells were all critical losses. Norwell seems to be the final nail in the coffin for this beat up o-line. Good luck back there Cody Kessler!

Jalen Ramsey: One of the NFL’s most talented young cornerbacks could miss the first game of his career on Sunday. Starting the week off with back-to-back “Did Not Practice” designations, the All-Pro finally logged a limited practice on Friday. Ramsey will be listed as questionable, with no word on whether he will even be available.

The Colts are not without their own set of injuries this week. Jack Doyle’s season came to an end this week, as he suffered a kidney injury that came at the end of Indianapolis’ win against the Miami Dolphins. The tight end spot, which had been a great position for depth, became much more shallow this week. Tight end Mo Alie-Cox is listed as OUT for this week’s matchup as well. This leaves Indy with Eric Ebron, and either Ryan Hewitt or Eric Swoope to fill the TE2 gap. Center Ryan Kelly will miss this week as well. After sustaining a knee injury against Miami, Kelly was unable to practice all week. Quite a few names are listed on the “questionable” designation, but most names in the list should play. The biggest concern of the “questionable” list is probably running back Marlon Mack, who is making his way back from a concussion.

Now that you’re all caught up, let’s talk about this weekend’s game. With all of the changes that Jacksonville has endured just over the course of this week, I have trouble believing they’ll be as competitive as a Bortles-led team. Granted, Kessler has some playing time this year, but changing coordinators and having to deal will several key injuries/suspensions to offensive players will be Cody Kessler’s bane this weekend. I’ll be looking for Darius Leonard, Malik Hooker and the rest of the Colts’ defense to force several turnovers.

For the Colts offense, sticking to fundamentals and just finding a way to move the chains will be critical. It’s supposed to be rainy and sloppy and gross. This week Indianapolis has to protect the ball and figure out a way to be effective on the ground. I think the rain might slow down this fast paced offense a little bit, so maintaining possession with slow methodical drives will be imperative. Andrew Luck has thrown at least 3 touchdowns in 8 straight games. This week however, Luck might need to take a back seat to his running backs and let them keep the ball dry. In week 10, Colts running backs ran for 85 yards on 16 carries, including a big 53 yard scamper by Jordan Wilkins. They’ll need that kind of big play production this week against a defense that still ranks 9th overall.

I think this game might be a lot closer that many may want to believe. If the elements play a factor in this game, Indianapolis’ fast offense, may have to take what the conditions give them. That being said, I don’t think a banged up Cody Kessler-led offense out duels Andrew Luck and company. I’ve got Indianapolis winning their 6th straight to stay close behind Houston in the AFC South hunt.

Indianapolis: 24 Jacksonville: 13

Photo credit: Colts.com

Week 11 Preview: Colts vs Titans

Another week of Colts football is upon us! This week, Indianapolis will play host to the Tennessee Titans who are coming off an impressive 34-10 drubbing of the New England Patriots. In that game, the Titans’ defense was suffocating, causing the Patriots to punt on 6 of 12 possessions. They also forced a turnover on downs, and kept Tom Brady and company from scoring on drives just before halftime and the end of the game. Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski missed a 52 yard attempt as well, as the Titans defense successfully kept the Patriots from scoring on 10 of their 12 possessions. Tom Brady looked rattled in this matchup, and his stats show it. Tennessee was able to get sacks on Brady 3 times as well as 7 total quarterback pressures. They also forced 4 pass deflections. Brady ended the day, going 21-41 for 254 yards 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions with a quarterback rating of just 29.5.

In today’s game, Indianapolis will face an obviously talented Titans defense who rank towards the top in most categories. They rank 1st overall in points allowed per game (16.8), 6th in yards allowed per game (328), 6th in pass yards allowed per game (228.2), and 11th in run defense with 99.8 yards allowed per game.

This is a team that is built a lot like the Jacksonville Jaguars team we saw Indianapolis play last Sunday. Defensively, this is a team that has playmakers and recognizable names at every level. In the secondary, cornerbacks Adoree Jackson and Malcom Butler will try and keep Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton from getting in rhythm, in the linebacker group, names like Wesley Woodyard and Brian Orakpo will try and keep the talented Colts tight ends contained, and on the defensive line, tackles Jurrell Casey and Austin Johnson will attempt to break through Indianapolis’ #2 ranked offensive line.

The Titans also have another, more unfortunate commonality with the Jaguars. Outside of last week’s win, the Titans offense has ranked near the bottom of the NFL this season in most categories. They’ve only managed 15 offensive touchdowns this season, and four of those touchdowns came in last week’s game. In points per game, they rank 28th (18.7), in total yards per game they are 30th (299), their 184.6 pass yards per game ranks 30th, and lastly, they rank 14th in rushing yards per game with 114.4.

Now that we’re familiar with our opponent, let’s take a look at what the Colts’ stats look like going into this week. Indianapolis brings a dynamic offensive attack, with the ability to put up a lot of points. Currently, the Colts rank 6th in the NFL in points per game (28.9), and quarterback Andrew Luck is second in passing touchdowns with 26. Luck also has a nice touchdown streak going, as he has compiled 6 straight performances of 3 or more passing touchdowns. This streak has only been matched twice in NFL history by quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Other offensive numbers for the Colts include, 9th in total yards per game (379.8), 12th in passing yards per game (266.2), and 15th in rushing yards per game (113.6).

Defensively, the Colts have been kind of a mixed bag. They’ve shown this season that they can force a lot of turnovers, as they posted 5 in one game (vs Buffalo Bills), but they’ve also shown that they lack depth in the secondary, as they’ve yielded as many as 17 completions in a row to opposing quarterbacks (Derek Carr/ Oakland Raiders). They’ve been great at getting to the quarterback one week, but follow up with a zero pressure performance the next. It has been a bit puzzling and frustrating at times for fans like myself, and I’m sure the same can be said of the players and coaching staff. One defensive thing has been consistent over the Colts winning streak however. The ability to create clutch turnovers in the closing minutes has been there in every win. They dismantled the Bills 37-5, and every turnover was a momentum boost in that game, in the matchup vs the Oakland Raiders, it was defensive rookie of the year candidate Darius Leonard punching the ball from Doug Martin’s arms, and against Jacksonville, it was cornerback Kenny Moore III that forced a fumble on the Jaguars final drive to survive a comeback attempt in the final two minutes. Perhaps Frank Reich’s mantra of having, “an obsession to finish” is finally sinking in. These Colts are buying what Reich in selling, and that has been very evident during the past few games.

My prediction:

I find this matchup to be eerily similar to the game played just a week ago in Lucas Oil Stadium. The stats and style of play the Titans and Jaguars have is almost indistinguishable. I think if the Colts can get off to a fast start as they did last week, then they’ll have a very good shot at climbing the AFC South ladder to second place this week. I see both teams ending the day at 5-5 as I’ve got Indianapolis winning this one 28-17.

Photo Credit: Stacey Revere/Getty Images

Mack finds the end zone twice as Colts roll over Bills 37-5

Missing their starting quarterback Josh Allen and watching running back LeSean McCoy leave the game with a head injury early on, the Bills struggled to find any offensive consistency against a stifling Colts defense. With both teams feeling each other out in the first quarter, the Colts offense took off in the second quarter. To cap a 13 play 75 yard drive, Andrew Luck found tight end Eric Swoope from 17 yards out for the game’s first score. A wobbly point after attempt by Adam Vinatieri was no good. This was the first of two missed extra points for Vinatieri on the day. Late Monday, Frank Reich told reporters that Vinatieri is dealing with a nagging groin injury. There’s no word on Vinatieri’s availability for next week’s game at Oakland.

The next Buffalo drive, the Bills were moving the ball quite well on the ground. Backup running back Chris Ivory rushed for 28 yards on two carries on the drive. With an opportunity to answer, tight end Charles Clay fumbled the ball at the Indianapolis 22 yard line after a big hit by safety Mike Adams. The ball was recovered by linebacker Darius Leonard at the 26 (the first of 5 Bills turnovers). Three plays later, Andrew Luck found running back Marlon Mack wide open in the flat for a 29 yard touchdown. The ensuing two point conversion put the Colts up 14-0.

A quick three and out by the Bills offense gave Indianapolis the ball back with just over 7 minutes left on the clock. Andrew Luck and the Colts offense took advantage of the opportunity, capping a 9 play 82 yard drive with another passing touchdown, this time to T.Y. Hilton.

With Indianapolis already up 21-0, Derek Anderson might have been feeling some pressure. Four plays into the drive, he tried to force a pass into a tight window to wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin, only to be picked off by the Colts’ Mike Mitchell. This set the Indianapolis offense up at the Buffalo 32 yard line. Two plays later Nyhiem Hines would take a 14 yard scamper to the Bills 18 yard line, and set up a 36 yard Adam Vinatieri field goal, putting the score at 24-0 at halftime.

In the second half it was much of the same, turnovers by the Bills, and the Colts offense capitalizing on said turnovers. The Colts would add two more touchdowns in the fourth quarter, and roll to a 37-5 victory.

Marlon Mack and the running game played a big part in this game. Mack rushed 19 times for 126 of the Colts’ 220 rushing yards on the day; as well as, 33 yards and a touchdown on two receptions. The sudden explosion in the run game was pleasantly surprising Indianapolis has struggled to get the run game going this season, but were able to break out against a top 10 rush defense. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come, as all three Colts running backs (Mack, Hines,Wilkins) rushed for more than 6 yards per carry on Sunday. Having an effective running game allowed the passing game to take a more conservative approach. Andrew Luck and his receivers were effective and efficient as he completed 17/23 for 156 yards and 4 touchdowns.

With the Colts finally getting their second win of the season, it begs to question if this is the start of a long winning streak for Indianapolis. The Colts will travel to Oakland to face the Raiders next weekend, and there’s a lot of reason to be optimistic of the matchup. Defensive star Khalil Mack was traded to the Bears earlier in the season, the Raiders’ number one wide receiver Amari Cooper was traded to the Cowboys for a first round pick today, and starting running back Marshawn Lynch has been placed on IR. The Raiders’ misfortune, could be a great opportunity for the Colts to get a much needed victory before heading into their bye week. With a tight race in the AFC South, a win would put the Colts right back in the division mix to keep playoff hopes alive. Here’s a look at the current division standings:

Houston 4-3

Tennessee 3-4

Jacksonville 3-4

Indianapolis 2-5

Photo: Thomas J. Russo/ USA Today Sports

Game Preview: Colts (1-5) vs Bills (2-4)

The Colts are sitting at the bottom of the league standings at 1-5, but miraculously aren’t too far outside of the playoff picture due to poor records in the rest of the AFC South. With the rest of the division at 3-3, mid-season has become crunch time for Indianapolis.

Some growing pains were to be expected this year. 2018 has been a roller coaster for Indianapolis. Starting way back in the February-March timeframe, longtime New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels had verbally agreed to become the next coach of the Indianapolis Colts. He had brought in a number of assistants that would be his coaching staff, only to back out of the agreement last minute. The Colts, left scrambling, decided to retain the McDaniels leftover coaching staff, and bring in their backup plan in now head coach Frank Reich.

The backup role is familiar to Frank Reich. For much of his NFL playing career, Reich was a backup quarterback in Buffalo, he’s been picked second on multiple assistant coaching job searches, and he was the offensive coordinator of the Eagles last year, as they knocked off Tom Brady and the Patriots in the Super Bowl with a backup quarterback (Nick Foles).

Now Reich has the reins. He’ll lead the Colts into Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday to face the Buffalo Bills. While this Bills team is far different than the ones that appeared in four straight Super Bowls in the early 90’s, Frank Reich’s feeling of coming full circle is not lost on him.

This year’s Buffalo Bills team seems pretty easy to pin down. They’re a solid defensive team ( top 10 rush, pass, and total yards against ), but rank near the bottom of the league on offense. They have lacked the ability to put up points, as they average just 12.7 points per game this year (32nd). They have also struggled to move the ball with any real effectiveness. They rank 31st in total yards per game with a measly 222.5.

Last week’s game against Houston was a mess for Buffalo. Josh Allen left the game early due to an elbow injury that will keep him out for several weeks, and then quarterback Nathan Peterman threw two late interceptions to help the Texans stage a comeback. Peterman’s play has been so bad, it prompted the Bills to retrieve 35 year old veteran quarterback, Derek Anderson from his beach vacation. Anderson will get the start against Indianapolis this Sunday.

Keys to Indianapolis victory:

1) Contain LeSean McCoy: While the Buffalo Bills fun game has been missing since the beginning of the season, McCoy’s track record in previous seasons shows that he’s capable of breaking a game open at any moment. Indianapolis ranks 16th in average rushing yards against their defense this season. However, they are 4th against yards per rushing attempt with just 3.7.

2) Make Derek Anderson wish he was still on vacation: With just under a week to prepare for a road game in Indianapolis, Derek Anderson will be under center this week for the Bills offense. Getting pressure up front and disrupting passing lanes is a must against the journeyman veteran who has spent 12 years in the league.

3) Don’t turn the ball over: The Bills aren’t doing many things right on the offensive side, but on the defensive side, the rank 3rd in total yards against, 6th in pass yards against, and 8th in rush yards against. All of that, while forcing 12 turnovers ( 7 fumbles/5 interceptions), and compiling 19 sacks (tied for 5th) make Buffalo a serious defensive opponent. If Indy hopes to win this game, protecting the ball in critical.

Game Prediction:

With little time to prepare, I think Derek Anderson will be the determining factor in this game. I think these teams are pretty evenly matched, but I think with Anderson coming in to the huddle from his vacation will make him a bit rusty. The Indianapolis defensive front should have ample opportunities to get pressure on Anderson against a Bills offensive line that has given up 23 sacks on the year.

My prediction:

Bills: 17 Colts: 27