Week 16 preview: Colts vs Giants

This week the New York Giants bring a 5-8 record to Indianapolis, and while they have been eliminated from the playoffs, they are still very capable of pulling off an upset. The Giants started off in a slump, beginning the season with a 1-7 record. Now, they have won four out of their last 6 games, and hope to finish on a strong note heading into the offseason. Two games this year by the Giants include going on the road to beat the current AFC South leading Houston Texans, and besting the NFC North champion Chicago Bears at home. It’s also worth noting that 6 of New York’s losses have been by 7 points or less.

As the season has gone on, quarterback Eli Manning and rookie running back Saquon Barkley have built solid chemistry, as Barkley has caught 82 passes from Manning, for 654 yards and 4 touchdowns. Barkley has also had a very successful rookie campaign running the ball, as he has tallied 1,155 yards (3rd in NFL) and 9 touchdowns (tied for 5th in NFL). Barkley will be the second top 5 running back the Colts will face in as many weeks.

There are a couple items of concern for the Giants. The first, wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. has been out for last two weeks, is trending towards missing this week’s game as well. The second, the Giants missed OBJ last week, as the New York offense put up a goose egg against the Tennessee Titans, falling 17-0 and effectively knocking them out of playoff contention. Not having OBJ would be a huge loss for a Giants team that will have to face a top 10 Colts defense this Sunday. In fact, since week 7, the Colts are the number 1 defense in yards against, and only have one game all season in which they haven’t forced at least 1 turnover. Over the last three games, they’ve been even more impressive, as they’ve averaged just 9 points against. This week will feature a unique battle of rookie of the year candidates when Saquon Barkley faces off against Darius Leonard. Leonard is currently leading the NFL with 146 tackles to go along with his 7 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, 6 pass deflections, and 1 interception.

On the offensive side, Indianapolis is operating like a well oiled machine. They currently rank 8th in points per game (26.6) and total yards per game (381.5), as well as 7th in passing yards per game. (273.6) Andrew Luck ranks second in the NFL in touchdown passes with 34, and the Colts’ offensive line is tied for first in the NFL with just 16 sacks given up on the year. Indianapolis also has 2 Pro Bowl selections. The first is veteran Eric Ebron, who is having not only a career year for himself, but has set Colts franchise records for receiving touchdowns and total touchdowns as a tight end (12 and 13 respectfully). The other Pro Bowler is rookie guard Quenton Nelson, who made headlines earlier this season as the NFL offensive rookie of the month in October. This was the first time the award had been given to a guard in NFL history, which certainly speaks volumes about his level of play and character on and off the field.

Overall, I believe Indianapolis is the more complete team in this matchup. Especially if Odell Beckham Jr. misses his third straight game to a quad injury, look for Indianapolis to pull ahead early and stay there. With the Tennessee Titans likely looking at a win against the banged up Washington Redskins this weekend, and the Baltimore Ravens facing a tough opponent in the Los Angeles Chargers, the Colts and Titans could be playing for a wildcard spot in week 17. This week, I’ve got Indianapolis winning this one 28-17.

Photo Credit: Michael Hickey-Getty Images

Colts shutout Cowboys to stay in AFC playoff race

The Colts have asserted themselves as mobile, agile, hostile, certifiable, undeniable giant killers the last two weeks. Ending the Texans’ 9 game winning streak two weeks ago in Houston wasn’t good enough for Indianapolis. This week, they shut down and shut out a Dallas offense who had been playing lights out since acquiring Amari Cooper in a trade with the Oakland Raiders. As winners of their previous 5 games, there was reason to believe that Dallas would continue their hot streak against a Colts defense that historically has been poor against the Cowboys; However, this year’s Indianapolis Colts defense is not the same as in years past. This year, the Colts have quietly built a top 10 defense, and have shown that they’re no longer one trick ponies.

This game was statistically interesting in the beginning. Dallas controlled the clock for most of the first half, as they managed to keep the ball for over 19 minutes! Unfortunately for the Cowboys, time of possession is nothing if you don’t do anything with it. The opening drive went 10 plays for 45 yards, and took 5 minutes off of the clock, but the Indianapolis defense stepped up, as defensive tackle Denico Autry batted down a 48 yard Brett Maher field goal attempt. With both teams scrambling to recover the blocked kick, Indianapolis linebacker Darius Leonard fell on the loose football, and the Colts took possession at the Dallas 44 yard line. That block pretty much set the tone for the Cowboys day. Dallas had a few opportunities to keep this game close, but ran out of steam, or made costly mistakes in the red zone.

From the 44 yard line, Indy began their first offensive possession. The Colts chipped away at the Dallas defense, as Andrew Luck reeled off two quick passes to Nyhiem Hines and T.Y. Hilton to get a first down. From there, Marlon Mack took over the drive. Over the next 6 plays, Mack would run 5 times for 34 yards and a touchdown from a yard out. After seeing a drop off in yards over the last few weeks, Mack turned in a career high performance in this game, as he ended with 139 yards on 27 carries and 2 touchdowns.

Those were the big stories of the day. Mack runs wild, Dallas fizzles out on each of their drives, Indianapolis forces a shut out, and the Cowboys winning streak ends at 5 games. It was a great team win for the Colts, and much needed. As winners of 7 of their last 8 games, Indianapolis is now a feared playoff contender. They’re the kind of team that no one wants to face this time of year. Top 10 on offense and defense, killing winning streaks, and getting hot at just the right time, stirs up some memories of dark horse teams of the past. When I think of this team, I find them eerily reminiscent of the 2007 New York Giants who managed to sneak in to the NFC 6th seed at 9-7 and run the the table, all the way to a Super Bowl victory against the then undefeated New England Patriots. I find myself asking if Indy could make similar waves if they manage to break into that last AFC wildcard spot.

To get into the playoffs though, the Colts don’t control their own destiny. Indianapolis needs to keep winning. With 5-9 Giants team at home and a road trip to Tennessee to battle a Titans team that Indianapolis beat 38-10 in week 11, the schedule looks favorable. That being said, the Colts will also need either the Pittsburgh Steelers or Baltimore Ravens to lose one of their final two games. With the Steelers facing the NFC’s top team (New Orleans Saints), and the Ravens facing the 11-3 Chargers next weekend, the odds look good for at least one of those teams to drop a game. If this happens, and Indy handles the Giants, the Colts would face a “win and you’re in” scenario in Tennessee week 17. Indy also has another interesting (less likely) playoff scenario. Should they win out, and should the Texans face a devastating collapse by dropping their final two games, Indianapolis would finish at 10-6 with the AFC South crown atop their heads.

Photo Credit: OregonLive.com