Wildcard Weekend: Colts @ Texans

Of all the games this weekend, this one looks to be the most even of all. With each of their regular season games being decided by just a field goal, the Colts and Texans will square off in Houston tomorrow for a rubber match.

In their first matchup of the season, the Texans had controlled most of the game, and had a commanding 28-10 lead in the 3rd quarter. However, Andrew Luck and the Colts offense would not go away so easily, as the offense went on a 21-3 run to force overtime.

In overtime, the Colts would get the ball first and run a 13 play drive generating just 50 yards, finally settling for a 44 yard Adam Vinatieri field goal, and putting the score at 34-31. On the ensuing Texans’ drive, the Colts defense held Deshaun Watson out of the end zone, and forced a 29 yard Fairbairn field goal.

Then it got real interesting. Facing a 4th and 4 on their own 43 yard line, Head Coach Frank Reich decider to take a gamble. He kept the offense on the field. One incomplete pass to Chester Rogers later, gave the Texans unbelievable field position. 4 plays later, Houston stole a win in Indianapolis with a Fairbairn field goal. many fans were left scratching their heads, and wondered why the Colts didn’t punt. The answer to that came during the postgame press conference, as the Indianapolis locker room echoed the same thing, ” We wanted to play to win, not to tie.”

The second round of this fight went much smoother for the Colts. After both teams stumbled out of the gate offensively, the Texans struck first. A late first quarter run by Alfred Blue, gave Houston a 7-0 run. It wasn’t until 6:33 left in the second that Indianapolis put up their first points with a 4 yard Marlon Mack rush. The score was set up by a 60 bomb from Luck to T.Y. Hilton on the previous play. Hilton would go on to finish with 9 receptions for 199 yards! That was the big momentum shift the Colts needed, as they went on to score 10 more points in the second, to take a 17-7 lead into halftime.

Coming out from the half, the Houston offense looked to have shaken off their own rust, as Deshaun Watson orchestrated a 16 play, 75 yard drive, capped by a 1 yard push into the end zone by Houston running back Lamar Miller. The drive took nearly 7 1/2 minutes off of the clock, but didn’t cool off the Colts, as they responded on the very next drive.

Indianapolis would go on a 75 yard drive of their own, and answer Houston’s score with an Andrew Luck strike to wide receiver Zach Pascal in the corner of the end zone from 12 yards out. The Colts would keep a 24-14 lead until late in the 4th, when Deshaun Watson found Deandre Hopkins in the back of the end zone with just 2:37 left in regulation.

Houston chose to trust their defense instead of attempting the onside kick. Things looked good for the Houston defense, until an Andrew Luck hard count got linebacker Jedeveon Clowney to jump offsides on a 3rd and 1 at the Indianapolis 48. The penalty allowed the Colts to drain the remaining time off of the clock and spoil the Texans’ comeback attempt.

Now we gear up for round 3. Here is the stat breakdown for this wildcard battle:

– Each team claimed an away victory in the regular season.

– Scoring Offense: IND-5th/HOU-15th

– Points Against Defense: IND-10th/HOU-T 4th

– Offensive Line Rank: IND-1st/HOU-32nd

– Defense Sacks: IND-19th (38)/HOU-12th (43)

– Turnovers: IND-T 22nd (24)/HOU-T 3rd (16)

– Takeaways: IND-T 10th (26)/HOU-4th (29)

– Team Rushing Yards: IND-20th/HOU-8th

– Team Passing Yards: IND-6th/HOU-17th

– Pass Defense Yards: IND-16th/HOU-28th

– Rush Defense Yards: IND-8th/HOU-3rd

As you can see, on paper, these teams are about as evenly matched as they come. Where one team has a weakness the other has a strength, and vice versa. This makes the decision for this game very difficult, and it may come down to who has the ball last. I’m going to go with the Colts in this one for a few reasons. I’ll list three.

The first reason: I think Indy is one of the few teams that can contain Deandre Hopkins. With a depleted wide receiver group due to injury, Indianapolis held Hopkins to just 36 yards on 4 catches in their last game in Houston. If they can get that kind of production from their secondary this weekend, that takes away a huge part of the Houston offense.

The second reason: The Colts have proven to be effective pass rushers against the awful Texans offensive line. Houston has given up a league worst 62 sacks on the year, and the Colts can take credit for 12 of those. I’ll be expecting to see Deshaun Watson rattled again this weekend.

The third reason: The Colts are capable of winning ugly. Playing against a division opponent is never easy, especially on the road, in the rain, in prime time. However, the Colts managed to do just that, and overcame 12 penalties and two turnovers in what was essentially a playoff game last weekend. I credit the Indianapolis offense for slowing the game down, and dictating the pace. The Colts steamrolled the Titans in time of possession, as the chewed up over 40 minutes of game time. The best defense was a good offense, and I think they’ll take that confidence into Houston.

My prediction: With the reasons above, and the fact that Andrew Luck has advanced further in the playoffs every time he’s been there, I’ve got Indy winning this one 34-24.

Photo Credit: John Glaser-USA TODAY Sports

Colts end Texans winning streak to stay alive in AFC playoff race

Going into this game, I didn’t feel very confident in Indianapolis. In fact, I picked Houston to win. After coming off of a rough shutout loss in Jacksonville last weekend, the offensive struggles continued for the first quarter of this week. The Colts stumbled out of the gate with four consecutive 3-and-outs, then an interception on the fifth series. This certainly didn’t leave Indy fans with much optimism, but luckily the Indianapolis defense did show up to keep the game interesting. Forcing several punts, and getting to quarterback Deshaun Watson 5 times was a huge difference maker on the way to Indianapolis’ victory.

The Colts forced two 3-and-outs to begin the game, before giving up the first touchdown of the day late in the first quarter (Alfred Blue 1yd rush). The 7-0 score would stand until 6:33 left in the second quarter, when Colts’ running back Marlon Mack punched it into the end zone from 4 yards out. The Mack touchdown was set up by a beautiful 60 yard strike from Andrew Luck to T.Y. Hilton on the previous play. Hilton would go on to have a monster day with 9 receptions and 199 yards receiving. The next Texans series was again a 3-and-out, as the Indianapolis defense got the ball back into Andrew Luck’s hands in time for another Colts touchdown drive.

Indianapolis would start the next drive on their own 34 yard line, but quickly advance field position on a nice connection from Luck to Eric Ebron for 23 yards to the Houston 43. Two plays later, Luck would find wide receiver Zach Pascal for a big 28 yard chunk. After a one yard loss on a Nyhiem Hines stretch play, Luck connected with Ebron again, as the tight end extended into the end zone to put the Colts ahead. Ebron’s touchdown set a Colts franchise record for single season receiving touchdowns by a tight end with 12. The record was previously held by Dallas Clark. The Adam Vinatieri point after attempt, gave the Colts a 14-7 lead with just under 3 minutes left in the first half, but second quarter points party wasn’t done yet! After the Colts defense forced yet another punt, the Indy offense took control with 1:14 left in the half, which was just enough time to get in range for a 54 yard Adam Vinatieri field goal, and take a 17-7 lead into the halftime break.

Coming out after halftime, the Colts defense was a bit sluggish. Houston’s offense managed to orchestrate a 16 play, 75 yard scoring drive (Lamar Miller 1 yard rush), and close Indianapolis’ lead to just 3. The offensive mishaps from the first quarter would not return for the Colts though; as they would answer on a 12 yard passing touchdown from Luck to Pascal. This pushed the Indy lead back to 10 by a score of 24-14. That score stuck until late in the fourth quarter, as Deshaun Watson made a spectacular throw, finding an open DeAndre Hopkins in the back of the end zone for a Houston touchdown. With just 2:37 left to play and 2 timeouts, the Texans chose not to attempt an onside kick. Instead, they attempted to halt the Colts’ potent offense. On a 3rd and 1 after the two minute warning, Andrew Luck would pull out the hard count, and managed to get Texans’ linebacker Jedeveon Clowney to bite. This gave Indianapolis a first down, and allowed them to kneel and close out the win 24-21.

Final Thoughts: This was by all accounts a playoff game for Indianapolis. They absolutely needed this win to keep in contention for a wildcard spot, and rose to the occasion. At 7-6, they are tied with the Ravens, Dolphins, and Titans for the 6th seed. Indianapolis gets a two game home stand against the Cowboys (8-5) and the Giants (5-8), before traveling to Nashville for an AFC South showdown against the 7-6 Titans. Not an easy schedule for the Colts to get through, but not impossible either. Indianapolis’ road to the playoffs means winning out. I think to be a #6 seed, 10-6 will be the record to get to, and that still may not be enough. The Colts “one game at a time” and “obsession to finish” mantras need to resonate in the minds of Colts’ players now, more than ever, because one loss may put an end to the Colts 2018 campaign.

For Houston, they can’t let off the gas too much either. With their upcoming opponents having a combined record of 14-25, the Texans schedule seems favorable; However, playing the Jets in the Meadowlands and the Eagles in Philadelphia could produce a couple of hiccups for an indoor team forced to play in the elements. Then, a final test in week 17 against a Jaguars team that would love to spoil the end of their rival’s season is no gimme either. At 9-4, the Texans control their own playoff destiny. Win 2/3 and they’re in for sure. Win out, and they might find themselves with a first round bye.

Photo Credit Tim Warner/ Getty Images

Week 14 preview: Colts @ Texans

The final month of regular season play has arrived, and both the Colts and Texans are vying for playoff spots. For the Texans, a win would extend their lead in the AFC South to a virtually insurmountable distance. For the Colts, this game is a must win if they hope to stay in the running for a potential AFC wildcard spot.

After beginning the season 0-3, the Houston Texans have been the hottest team in the NFL. Reeling off nine straight victories, the Texans have propelled themselves to the top of the AFC South, and the #3 seed in the AFC playoff race. Second year quarterback Deshaun Watson leads the way for Houston, as he has passed for 3,031 yards and posts a 21:9 touchdown to interception ratio. Watson has also added another 375 yards on the ground, as well as two rushing touchdowns. However, Watson is not the only playmaker on Houston’s roster. Game-breaking talent is found at nearly every position on both the offense and defense. Whether it’s the tandem of Pro Bowl receivers Deandre Hopkins and Demaryius Thomas, or All Pro defensive end JJ Watt, or elite safety Tyrann Mathieu, it’s clear that this team is loaded with talent.

The Texans offense currently ranks 12th in the NFL in both points per game (25.2), and yards per game (374). They also rank 3rd in rushing yards per game (140.8). A weak spot though, surprisingly seems to be the passing game. With just 233.2 yards per game, Houston ranks just 22nd in the NFL.

On the defensive side, the Texans are even better. Ranked in the top 10 in points (19.6), rushing yards (91.3), and total yards allowed per game (341.5), the Houston defense continues to be one of the more imposing to match up against.

As impressive as stats like this may be, the Colts can play confident in this week’s game knowing they took this team to the wire in week 4, and may have tied, if not for a gutsy Frank Reich decision to go for it on 4th down in the Colts own territory. Some things have changed since then. The Texans did trade for wide receiver Demaryius Thomas among other transactions, but the Colts offensive line looks a lot different from week 4, and Indianapolis will have running back Marlon Mack in the lineup this go around. T.Y. Hilton also missed some playing time during the Colts’ and Texans’ last meeting, as he was in and out during the game, while nursing hamstring and shoulder injuries. Perhaps Indianapolis can be the beginning and the end of the Texans long winning streak. To do so, they’ll need to play much better than they did last time these teams met. For Indy to pull the upset, I believe 3 things have to happen in order to pull out the victory:

1) Protect Luck and Protect the Ball: The Colts started their last game against Houston off with a 7 play 75 yard touchdown drive, and forced Texans to punt on their opening possession. The next Indianapolis possession was not so graceful. Two plays into the drive, linebacker Jadeveon Clowney recovered an Andrew Luck fumble and took it in for a Texans’ touchdown. From then on, Indianapolis was fighting momentum. Luck fumbled again late in the second quarter (again the result of poor pass blocking). Two plays later, Houston found themselves leading 21-7. The Colts fell behind 28-10 at one point, but 14 of Houston’s points could have been erased if Indy had simply held on to the ball. It wasn’t until the Colts forced a turnover of their own, that they reclaimed momentum to spark a comeback and force overtime.

Control Time of Possession: Its worth noting, that in Houston’s three losses this year, they failed to win the time of possession battle in each of those games. For this matchup, I’d like to see the Colts make long, methodical drives in order to take the playmaking ability of Deshaun Watson away for as much as possible. If the Colts can keep the Houston offense sidelined, they have a good shot at pulling this one out.

Run the ball effectively: During their week 4 matchup with Houston, Indianapolis found themselves in a hole, the could only be dug out with a career day by Andrew Luck. Luck posted career highs in yards (464), completions (40), and attempts (62), and finished with 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in a ridiculous Madden-esque stat line. With Marlon Mack in the lineup for this game, and both Jordan Wilkins and Nyhiem Hines having had solid playing time this season, Indianapolis should unleash their 3-headed monster to the fullest extent.

It was a little unnerving to see the Colts post a goose egg last week against Jacksonville. With another top 10 defense to play this week, the Colts are forced to have a short memory. Judging by the week 4 meeting of these teams, a barn burner isn’t off of the table, but I feel as if the score will be a bit more tame this go around. Each team recognizes this as a critical game for playoff positioning, and that why I believe they will be much more conservative in their play calling. I don’t think we’ll see Frank Reich go for it on as many 4th downs, but instead take the points if available. That being said, I like the Texans in this game, simply because I believe they have a more well rounded team. Household names like JJ Watt, Deshaun Watson, Jedeveon Clowney, and Deandre Hopkins likely made game planning for this team a nightmare. This week, I have Houston winning, (but not without an Indianapolis fight) 24-20, and pushing their winning streak to 10.

Photo Credit: USAToday.com