Divisional Round: Colts @ Chiefs

After a dominant performance in Houston, the Colts travel to Missouri for a conference semi-final against the Kansas City Chiefs. Let’s take a quick look back at last week to see what brought us here.

On wildcard weekend, Indianapolis was firing on all cylinders. On the offensive side, the Colts held the ball for over 16 minutes in the first half. This allowed for three touchdown drives, and kept Deshaun Watson and the Houston offense on the bench. Two Andrew Luck touchdown passes to Eric Ebron and Dontrelle Inman, and a 2 yard Marlon Mack touchdown run were all that Indianapolis needed due to an excellent defensive day.

On the defensive side, the Colts nearly pitched a shutout. On the Texans lone scoring play, wide receiver Keke Coutee seemed to have released the ball and fumble into the end zone, which would have kept the Texans off the scoreboard, as the play would have resulted as a touchback. As it was, the play stood as called on the field for the touchdown.

The Texans had no answers for Indianapolis, and the Colts rolled to a 21-7 victory in Houston. When the Colts face the Chiefs on Saturday, their mantras will remain the same, which are to have an obsession to finish, and get to 1-0 this week. This team has essentially been playing playoff football since week 7. At 1-5, Indianapolis knew that they needed a mentality change if they hoped to have any shot at the post season. “1-0” may be simple, and may be generic, and it’s not the first time a coaching staff has used the mantra, but this young Indianapolis team has responded in a huge way, by winning 10 of their last 11 games.

This week the Colts walk into a toxic environment. A stadium with deafening noise, a high octane offense, and a team with a big chip on their shoulder. See, the Kansas City Chiefs haven’t won a playoff game in Arrowhead Stadium in 25 years! To put that in perspective, the last time the Chiefs won a home playoff game was when gas was $1.11 per gallon, George Bush Senior was president, and I was in diapers. Every team wants to win, but I’m not sure any playoff team needs a home playoff win more the Kansas City. Not to mention that their head coach, Andy Reid, has also had his run of playoff struggles. Reid is 11-13 in career playoff games with only 1 Super Bowl appearance (lost to Patriots in SB XXXIX 24-21). In fact, Reid only has one playoff victory as the Chiefs head coach, which came in 2015, when Kansas City bested the Houston Texans in the wildcard round.

So, the history is in favor of Indianapolis. Not only does Kansas City have a poor record at home, and have a coach that is perennially bad in the playoffs, but the Colts also have a lot of postseason success against the Chiefs. Dating back to 1995, the Colts have never lost to Kansas City in the playoffs, going 4-0 in that stretch. In the overall series history, Indianapolis leads the Chiefs 16-9, and the Chiefs were a stepping stone on the way to a Colts Super Bowl run in 2006.

With all of this winning though, it might be time for Kansas City revenge. Heartache has befallen the Chiefs organization for what seems like forever, as they have alway seemed to have a great team, but fall short in the playoffs. Could this be the year they break the Colts curse? I don’t think so, and here are five reasons why:

1) The Chiefs defense is bad. How bad you ask? Well, the Chiefs give up an average of 26.3 points per game (24th), rank 31st in Yards against, and give up an astonishing 5 yards per rushing attempt (only the Los Angeles Rams give up more (5.1). With a running back that just gouged the league’s top rushing defense to the tune of 148 rushing yards, that’s bad new for this Kansas City defense. They might have had a saving grace in their pass rush, because they actually led the league with 52 sacks. I say might have, because even though the Chiefs can get to the quarterback, Andrew Luck is an expert at pre-snap reads, not to mention the Colts offensive line is the leagues’ best at preventing sacks. They’ve only given up 18 all season, including last week’s wildcard matchup against Houston.

2) To piggyback on the Chiefs defense being bad, the Colts offense is very good. Averaging 27.1 points per game is just the tip of the iceberg for these Colts. Ranking 2nd in passing touchdowns, 6th in passing yards are a little deeper, but what has really impressed me over the last few weeks is Indy’s ability to kill the clock. Long sustained drives are what I believe will be the death of this Chiefs team. If the Colts run the ball with effectiveness, Andrew Luck can orchestrate quarter long drives. Drives like this will keep the Kansas City offense cold in the cold snowy weather expected for Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday. Which brings me to my next point.

3) Snowy weather will win the day. An offense that is productive on the ground is dangerous. An offense that can run in the snow is unstoppable. The Colts have a few things going for them in this snowy scenario, the first is that Marlon Mack is an elusive back that can eat up yards. If he can be a mudder on Saturday, that’s a big win for the Colts offense. The second is that, the Colts defense hasn’t given up a 100 yard rushing performance to anyone. Should that trend continue, it might force Mahomes to try an make plays that aren’t there. Indianapolis has forced at least one turnover in 16 of 17 games this year. So, the odds are likely that Mahomes will slip up at least once.

4) The Indianapolis secondary is underrated. When cornerbacks Pierre Desir and Kenny Moore II shut down Deandre Hopkins in Houston for the second time this season, it wasn’t a fluke. The duo has been solid for several weeks now, and has only matured over the course of the season. Add in safeties Malik Hooker and Clayton Geathers, and you have a defensive backfield that is capable of giving Patrick Mahomes fits. If Indy can get pressure on Mahomes, this secondary is ready to pounce on big play opportunities.

5) Andrew Luck. Need I say more? Ok, I will. If anyone is able to keep pace with the guy who threw the most touchdowns this year, it’s the guy who threw the second most touchdowns this year. Luck has had a career season, but more than that, his career is loaded with 4th quarter comebacks, game winning touchdowns, shootout victories, and long methodical drives. Andrew Luck has also been to the playoffs before, and has won against a high powered Chiefs offense.

My prediction: My prediction is that bodies at rest stay at rest, and the Chiefs look slow in the snow coming off of their bye. The Colts practiced outdoors this week to prepare for the cold weather, and judging by the shorts Quenton Nelson was wearing, it didn’t faze them a bit. With an offensive running game that is on point, and a defensive squad that is capable of timely turnovers, I’ve got the Colts stealing one in Arrowhead 31-28 behind an Adam Vinatieri game winner.

Photo Credit: Rob Carr SB Nation

Colts regular season review

The 2018 Indianapolis Colts managed to do what only two other teams have done since the AFL-NFL merger. They found a way to march into the playoffs after beginning their season 1-5, and join the 1970 Cincinnati Bengals and 2015 Kansas City Chiefs in the rare category.

Beginning the first quarter of the season at 1-3, Indianapolis found a way to improve in each successive quarter during the season (2-2, 3-1, and finally 4-0). Finally ending at 10-6, the 2018 Colts are a far cry from the pre-season predictions given by ESPN, USA Today Sports, and several other sports news outlets. Back in August, USA TODAY Sports picked the Colts to go just 2-14, and ranked them dead last in the NFL power rankings, ESPN Staff writer Mike Wells had the Colts going 7-9 when he wrote his game-by-game prediction prior to the 2018 NFL Draft, and IndyStar reporter Zak Keefer gave his prediction on September 5th, and pictured the Colts at 7-9.

Looking back, I can see where the poor projections came from. Andrew Luck, who had finally worked his way back from a torn labrum, was a huge question mark. The secrecy intimidated many, and questions were raised about his ability to withstand the rigors of a full NFL season. Additionally, many were afraid that Luck would face a tough time behind an offensive line that had just given up 56 sacks (NFL high) the year prior. All of this mixed with being the NFL’s youngest team, a historically poor defense, and having Josh McDaniels’ pull a disappearing act was a recipe for disaster.

However, these things that seemed to be road blocks at the time, can now be looked at as blessings in disguise. Andrew Luck is as healthy as he’s ever been and put together another top 5 quarterback year. Young players and free agent acquisitions stepped up this year in a big way. Eric Ebron had a career year on his way to a Pro Bowl selection, Marlon Mack stepped into the lead role, and Denico Autry led the Colts with 9 sacks. Then the rookies were sensational. Guards Quenton Nelson (Pro Bowl) and Braden Smith helped form a wall that only let up 18 sacks all year (NFL best), running back Nyheim Hines caught 63 passes on the year, as well as totaling 739 yards from scrimmage and 4 touchdowns, and defensive rookie of the year candidate Leonard posted a franchise record and NFL leading 163 tackles, while also tallying 7 sacks, 8 pass deflections, 4 forced fumbles, and 2 interceptions during an impressive rookie campaign.

…but wait there’s more!

The Colts defense under Matt Eberflus (a leftover Josh McDaniels assistant) managed to work their way to rank 11th in total defense, 8th in rushing defense, 10th in points against, and were one of 3 teams that didn’t allow a single 100 yard rusher all season (New Orleans and Houston were the others).

On the offensive side of the ball, the Colts’ skill position players were explosive. The offense’s 27.1 points per game ranks 5th in the NFL, to go along with being 7th in total yards (386.2) and 6th in passing yards per game (278.8). Running back Marlon Mack totaled over 1,000 yards from scrimmage and 10 total touchdowns on the year, wide receiver T.Y. Hilton led Colts pass catchers with 76 receptions and 1270 receiving yards, and Eric Ebron had a nose for the end zone, as found pay dirt on 14 occasions (13 rec/1 rush).

Special teams didn’t flex their muscles too often this season, but were effective when they did. The Colts are tied with Tampa Bay for the 4th fewest punts on the year (57). However, Punter Rigoberto Sanchez and the punt team managed to generate the third best net punting averaging with 44.5 yards per punt. Also, out of the 57 punts, 24 were fielded inside the opponent’s 20 yard line. Indianapolis gave up only 93 punt return yards all year which was second only to the New Orleans Saints who gave up just 60.

Kicker Adam Vinatieri showed that he’s still got it this year. The all-time leader in points went 23 of 27 on field goals this season (long 54 twice), including a game winner in the final seconds against Miami. The 46 year old has been a mentor and vocal leader in the Colts locker room, as well as an inspiration for old guys everywhere.

Frank Reich came to Indianapolis preaching one important mantra, “have an obsession to finish.” I think that mantra was embraced and fully encapsulates the Colts’ 2018 season. Starting 1-5 and facing elimination, Indianapolis dug in, and out muscled 9 of their last 10 opponents to secure a wildcard birth. Darius Leonard has mentioned on Twitter this week that the Colts aren’t satisfied, as he was quoted tweeting,…”We’re not happy that we’re in the playoffs, we’re trying to hold up that Lombardi trophy.” The Colts have improved every quarter of the season, and it would be the ultimate improvement and show of perseverance if they can manage to string together 4 more wins on the road to the Super Bowl.

photo credit: Christopher Hanewinckel- USA TODAY Sports

Week 17 preview: Colts @ Titans

The game is a story of perseverance. Both teams have had their highs and lows during the season, but no matter the outcome of tonight’s game, they will both end with winning records.

The Colts’ first half of the season was a low note, as they fell to 1-5 out of the gate. The message boards and Facebook comment sections were a battlefield between those who screamed to, “Fire Reich” and “Bench Luck” and those who remained cautiously optimistic that their team still had a chance due to the rough shape of the entire AFC South at the time. (Houston led the division at just 4-3 at the time)

Now the Colts have come roaring back, and have placed themselves in a position to steal the AFC South crown, should the other two contenders slip up. Winning 8 of their last 9 games, Indy has become the hottest team in the league. They’ve killed winning streaks, beat playoff teams, and stifled premier running backs on their way to 9-6.

Tennessee began the year on a roller coaster ride. With 6 of their first 7 seven games being decided by a touchdown or less, the Titans managed to go 3-4 at the beginning of their 2018 campaign. Then, they dug in a little deeper, winning their next two against the Cowboys in Dallas and coming home to dismantle New England 34-10! Then another hiccup, as they dropped their next two to Indianapolis and Houston on the road, but they didn’t lose sight, and have managed to win their last 4 games on their way to 9-6. So, the big question for Tennessee is which version of their team will show up? Will it be the team that couldn’t seem to win the close games, or the more recent Titans who have won 6 of their last 8?

You can see a lot of similarities in these two teams. For example:

Both have forced a shutout

Both have been shut out

Both have had winning streaks of 4+ games

Both have losing streaks of 3 games

Both have top 10 defenses over the second half of the season.

Both defenses are holding teams to an average of 13.5 points or less in the last 4 weeks

There are differences though. These are the most lopsided of those differences:

Passing TD’s – Luck 2nd (36) > Mariota 29th (11)

PPG- IND 7th (26.7) > TEN 26th (19.5)

Rushing YPG- IND 21st (104) < TEN 5th (128.7)

Passing YPG- IND 6th (278.9) > TEN 29th (187.3)

PPG allowed- IND 13th (21.8) < TEN 2nd (18)

I think this will be a hard fought battle. I believe that the Titans of week 11 are a thing of the past, and they will show up in prime time in front of their home crowd at Nissan Stadium. That being said, the Tennessee has a lot of players playing banged up or missing the game due to injury. To me, there are two big things to watch for in this game. The first will be Marcus Mariota. If he does in fact play, what level will he be at? Stating that he was numb throughout his body last week raised eyebrows, and it will be interesting to see how effectively he will be able to grip and throw the football. The second, is watching how effective the Titans rush defense will be without starters Jurrell Casey and Brian Orakpo in the lineup. Colts’ running back Marlon Mack has shown great ability in many games this season, as he’s racked up nearly 800 yards and 8 rushing touchdowns on the year. With the run stopping Casey out of the lineup, will that mean a big night for Mack?

My prediction:

I think this game has the potential to be a shoot out. Titans running back Derrick Henry has been in a zone the last 4 weeks, but on the same token, the Darius Leonard and the Indy defense contained two of the NFL’s best backs in Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley. I say the Colts get the edge and the win for their ability to put points on the scoreboard and that they have a top 10 defense against a bottom 10 Titans offense. The Colts have a top 10 scoring and passing offense, and I think that will show on Sunday night. Indianapolis wins this one 31-20.

Photo Credit: AP Photo – Darron Cummings

Week 16 preview: Colts vs Giants

This week the New York Giants bring a 5-8 record to Indianapolis, and while they have been eliminated from the playoffs, they are still very capable of pulling off an upset. The Giants started off in a slump, beginning the season with a 1-7 record. Now, they have won four out of their last 6 games, and hope to finish on a strong note heading into the offseason. Two games this year by the Giants include going on the road to beat the current AFC South leading Houston Texans, and besting the NFC North champion Chicago Bears at home. It’s also worth noting that 6 of New York’s losses have been by 7 points or less.

As the season has gone on, quarterback Eli Manning and rookie running back Saquon Barkley have built solid chemistry, as Barkley has caught 82 passes from Manning, for 654 yards and 4 touchdowns. Barkley has also had a very successful rookie campaign running the ball, as he has tallied 1,155 yards (3rd in NFL) and 9 touchdowns (tied for 5th in NFL). Barkley will be the second top 5 running back the Colts will face in as many weeks.

There are a couple items of concern for the Giants. The first, wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. has been out for last two weeks, is trending towards missing this week’s game as well. The second, the Giants missed OBJ last week, as the New York offense put up a goose egg against the Tennessee Titans, falling 17-0 and effectively knocking them out of playoff contention. Not having OBJ would be a huge loss for a Giants team that will have to face a top 10 Colts defense this Sunday. In fact, since week 7, the Colts are the number 1 defense in yards against, and only have one game all season in which they haven’t forced at least 1 turnover. Over the last three games, they’ve been even more impressive, as they’ve averaged just 9 points against. This week will feature a unique battle of rookie of the year candidates when Saquon Barkley faces off against Darius Leonard. Leonard is currently leading the NFL with 146 tackles to go along with his 7 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, 6 pass deflections, and 1 interception.

On the offensive side, Indianapolis is operating like a well oiled machine. They currently rank 8th in points per game (26.6) and total yards per game (381.5), as well as 7th in passing yards per game. (273.6) Andrew Luck ranks second in the NFL in touchdown passes with 34, and the Colts’ offensive line is tied for first in the NFL with just 16 sacks given up on the year. Indianapolis also has 2 Pro Bowl selections. The first is veteran Eric Ebron, who is having not only a career year for himself, but has set Colts franchise records for receiving touchdowns and total touchdowns as a tight end (12 and 13 respectfully). The other Pro Bowler is rookie guard Quenton Nelson, who made headlines earlier this season as the NFL offensive rookie of the month in October. This was the first time the award had been given to a guard in NFL history, which certainly speaks volumes about his level of play and character on and off the field.

Overall, I believe Indianapolis is the more complete team in this matchup. Especially if Odell Beckham Jr. misses his third straight game to a quad injury, look for Indianapolis to pull ahead early and stay there. With the Tennessee Titans likely looking at a win against the banged up Washington Redskins this weekend, and the Baltimore Ravens facing a tough opponent in the Los Angeles Chargers, the Colts and Titans could be playing for a wildcard spot in week 17. This week, I’ve got Indianapolis winning this one 28-17.

Photo Credit: Michael Hickey-Getty Images

Colts end Texans winning streak to stay alive in AFC playoff race

Going into this game, I didn’t feel very confident in Indianapolis. In fact, I picked Houston to win. After coming off of a rough shutout loss in Jacksonville last weekend, the offensive struggles continued for the first quarter of this week. The Colts stumbled out of the gate with four consecutive 3-and-outs, then an interception on the fifth series. This certainly didn’t leave Indy fans with much optimism, but luckily the Indianapolis defense did show up to keep the game interesting. Forcing several punts, and getting to quarterback Deshaun Watson 5 times was a huge difference maker on the way to Indianapolis’ victory.

The Colts forced two 3-and-outs to begin the game, before giving up the first touchdown of the day late in the first quarter (Alfred Blue 1yd rush). The 7-0 score would stand until 6:33 left in the second quarter, when Colts’ running back Marlon Mack punched it into the end zone from 4 yards out. The Mack touchdown was set up by a beautiful 60 yard strike from Andrew Luck to T.Y. Hilton on the previous play. Hilton would go on to have a monster day with 9 receptions and 199 yards receiving. The next Texans series was again a 3-and-out, as the Indianapolis defense got the ball back into Andrew Luck’s hands in time for another Colts touchdown drive.

Indianapolis would start the next drive on their own 34 yard line, but quickly advance field position on a nice connection from Luck to Eric Ebron for 23 yards to the Houston 43. Two plays later, Luck would find wide receiver Zach Pascal for a big 28 yard chunk. After a one yard loss on a Nyhiem Hines stretch play, Luck connected with Ebron again, as the tight end extended into the end zone to put the Colts ahead. Ebron’s touchdown set a Colts franchise record for single season receiving touchdowns by a tight end with 12. The record was previously held by Dallas Clark. The Adam Vinatieri point after attempt, gave the Colts a 14-7 lead with just under 3 minutes left in the first half, but second quarter points party wasn’t done yet! After the Colts defense forced yet another punt, the Indy offense took control with 1:14 left in the half, which was just enough time to get in range for a 54 yard Adam Vinatieri field goal, and take a 17-7 lead into the halftime break.

Coming out after halftime, the Colts defense was a bit sluggish. Houston’s offense managed to orchestrate a 16 play, 75 yard scoring drive (Lamar Miller 1 yard rush), and close Indianapolis’ lead to just 3. The offensive mishaps from the first quarter would not return for the Colts though; as they would answer on a 12 yard passing touchdown from Luck to Pascal. This pushed the Indy lead back to 10 by a score of 24-14. That score stuck until late in the fourth quarter, as Deshaun Watson made a spectacular throw, finding an open DeAndre Hopkins in the back of the end zone for a Houston touchdown. With just 2:37 left to play and 2 timeouts, the Texans chose not to attempt an onside kick. Instead, they attempted to halt the Colts’ potent offense. On a 3rd and 1 after the two minute warning, Andrew Luck would pull out the hard count, and managed to get Texans’ linebacker Jedeveon Clowney to bite. This gave Indianapolis a first down, and allowed them to kneel and close out the win 24-21.

Final Thoughts: This was by all accounts a playoff game for Indianapolis. They absolutely needed this win to keep in contention for a wildcard spot, and rose to the occasion. At 7-6, they are tied with the Ravens, Dolphins, and Titans for the 6th seed. Indianapolis gets a two game home stand against the Cowboys (8-5) and the Giants (5-8), before traveling to Nashville for an AFC South showdown against the 7-6 Titans. Not an easy schedule for the Colts to get through, but not impossible either. Indianapolis’ road to the playoffs means winning out. I think to be a #6 seed, 10-6 will be the record to get to, and that still may not be enough. The Colts “one game at a time” and “obsession to finish” mantras need to resonate in the minds of Colts’ players now, more than ever, because one loss may put an end to the Colts 2018 campaign.

For Houston, they can’t let off the gas too much either. With their upcoming opponents having a combined record of 14-25, the Texans schedule seems favorable; However, playing the Jets in the Meadowlands and the Eagles in Philadelphia could produce a couple of hiccups for an indoor team forced to play in the elements. Then, a final test in week 17 against a Jaguars team that would love to spoil the end of their rival’s season is no gimme either. At 9-4, the Texans control their own playoff destiny. Win 2/3 and they’re in for sure. Win out, and they might find themselves with a first round bye.

Photo Credit Tim Warner/ Getty Images

Game Preview: Colts @ Jaguars

After their bye week and three straight home games, the Colts are taking their first road trip since traveling to Oakland in October. The forecast for tomorrow calls for thunderstorms in the Jacksonville area, so it will be interesting to see if the elements play a factor, especially for an indoor team like the Colts.

Since their week 10 matchup in Indianapolis, this Jaguars team has a wildly different look. Earlier this week, quarterback Blake Bortles was benched in favor of Cody Kessler, they fired their offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, Leonard Fournette landed a 1-game suspension after landing a couple punches against the Buffalo Bills, Guard Andrew Norwell was placed on the Injured Reserve, and last but not least, cornerback Jalen Ramsey is questionable (due to injury) to play after starting every game in his NFL career.

As you can see, that’s a lot of changes so I’ll break them down one at a time.

Bortles: Pulling Bortles this week is a bit puzzling to me because, Bortles has historically put up solid numbers against the Colts. Even in the week 10 loss, Bortles threw for 320 yards and 2 touchdowns. Bortles career stats against Indianapolis are 187 of 302, 61.9% completion percentage, 2384 yards, and 14:3 touchdown to interception ratio. He does have a losing record against the Colts overall (4-5), but boasts a 3-1 record in home games against Indy. Cody Kessler has one game of regular season action this year (against Houston Texans), and the results were so-so. On that day Kessler finished 21-30, for 1 touchdown, 1 interception, 1 fumble, and was sacked 4 times in a 20-7 defeat.

Nathaniel Hackett: After coaching a sixth ranked offense that propelled the Jaguars to the AFC championship, many people expected more out of Hackett this year. Unfortunately for him, his offense took a nosedive this year. Falling to 22nd overall in total offense, having to fight through numerous injuries, and overcome poor quarterback play, Hackett just couldn’t hack it in Jacksonville. This Sunday, his former duties will be taken over by quarterbacks coach and interim offensive coordinator Scott Milanovich.

Leonard Fournette: Well, it seems as if the Jaguars’ season of frustration materialized in the form of a Fournette fist fight last week. The second year running back, who has spent much of the season sidelined with a hamstring injury, lost his temper during a loss against the Buffalo Bills. Losing is tough at any point. Jacksonville started out 3-1, and had Super Bowl aspirations to begin the year, but they have now fallen to 3-8, and are in the mix for a top 10 draft pick. The raw emotion of that disappointment has reared it’s ugly head, and the Jaguars are no better for it.

Andrew Norwell: The highest paid guard in the NFL, will unfortunately be sidelined for the rest of the 2018 season. An ankle injury sustained in Sunday’s loss to the Buffalo Bills adds to the seemingly never ending list of injuries to the Jacksonville offensive line. Left tackle Cam Robinson, Center Brandon Linder, and backup left tackle Josh Wells were all critical losses. Norwell seems to be the final nail in the coffin for this beat up o-line. Good luck back there Cody Kessler!

Jalen Ramsey: One of the NFL’s most talented young cornerbacks could miss the first game of his career on Sunday. Starting the week off with back-to-back “Did Not Practice” designations, the All-Pro finally logged a limited practice on Friday. Ramsey will be listed as questionable, with no word on whether he will even be available.

The Colts are not without their own set of injuries this week. Jack Doyle’s season came to an end this week, as he suffered a kidney injury that came at the end of Indianapolis’ win against the Miami Dolphins. The tight end spot, which had been a great position for depth, became much more shallow this week. Tight end Mo Alie-Cox is listed as OUT for this week’s matchup as well. This leaves Indy with Eric Ebron, and either Ryan Hewitt or Eric Swoope to fill the TE2 gap. Center Ryan Kelly will miss this week as well. After sustaining a knee injury against Miami, Kelly was unable to practice all week. Quite a few names are listed on the “questionable” designation, but most names in the list should play. The biggest concern of the “questionable” list is probably running back Marlon Mack, who is making his way back from a concussion.

Now that you’re all caught up, let’s talk about this weekend’s game. With all of the changes that Jacksonville has endured just over the course of this week, I have trouble believing they’ll be as competitive as a Bortles-led team. Granted, Kessler has some playing time this year, but changing coordinators and having to deal will several key injuries/suspensions to offensive players will be Cody Kessler’s bane this weekend. I’ll be looking for Darius Leonard, Malik Hooker and the rest of the Colts’ defense to force several turnovers.

For the Colts offense, sticking to fundamentals and just finding a way to move the chains will be critical. It’s supposed to be rainy and sloppy and gross. This week Indianapolis has to protect the ball and figure out a way to be effective on the ground. I think the rain might slow down this fast paced offense a little bit, so maintaining possession with slow methodical drives will be imperative. Andrew Luck has thrown at least 3 touchdowns in 8 straight games. This week however, Luck might need to take a back seat to his running backs and let them keep the ball dry. In week 10, Colts running backs ran for 85 yards on 16 carries, including a big 53 yard scamper by Jordan Wilkins. They’ll need that kind of big play production this week against a defense that still ranks 9th overall.

I think this game might be a lot closer that many may want to believe. If the elements play a factor in this game, Indianapolis’ fast offense, may have to take what the conditions give them. That being said, I don’t think a banged up Cody Kessler-led offense out duels Andrew Luck and company. I’ve got Indianapolis winning their 6th straight to stay close behind Houston in the AFC South hunt.

Indianapolis: 24 Jacksonville: 13

Photo credit: Colts.com

Injury Update: Jack Doyle

Tight end Jack Doyle has been placed on the injured reserve with a season ending kidney injury. This is a tough loss for the Colts. After missing extended time with a hip injury earlier in the season, Doyle had come back to be an effective part of the Colts offense during their 5 game winning streak. Since returning against the Oakland Raiders on October 28th, Doyle had compiled 17 receptions for 165 yards and 2 touchdowns. While Doyle has been known to be an effective pass catcher, his true value is as a pass blocker. Pro Football Focus rated Doyle as the #1 pass blocking tight end in the NFL this season. Doyle finishes the year with 26 receptions, 245 yards, and 2 touchdowns.

Luckily for Indianapolis, they have good depth at the tight end position. Eric Ebron is having a career best year, as he’s racked up 11 receiving touchdowns (tied for first in NFL). Eric Swoope and Mo Alie-Cox have also been good in limited action. Alie-Cox has collected 6 receptions for 112 yards and 2 touchdowns on the year, while Swoope has come off the practice squad several times this season to grab 7 catches for 83 yards and 3 scores. Both Alie-Cox and Swoope were injured during last week’s game against Miami, but head coach Frank Reich is hopeful that at least one of the two returns this Sunday when the Colts face the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Photo Credit: Indianapolis Star

Colts overcome three turnovers and 10 point deficit to win 5th straight.

What a roller coaster of a game! Let’s start at the end of the second quarter. With the Colts up 14-7, Ryan Tannehill connected with wide receiver Leonte Carroo on a 74 yard strike. Carroo wrestled the ball away from Colts’ cornerback Pierre Desir, and took it into the end zone to tie the game at 14. After the ensuing kickoff, Andrew Luck and the Colts’ offense assumed possession at the 25 yard line. One play later, Dolphins’ cornerback Xavien Howard fought off T.Y. Hilton on an under thrown Andrew Luck pass for an interception. The Colts defense would respond with a turnover of their own, as veteran safety Mike Mitchell knocked the ball free from the hands of Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki. One more play later, Xavien Howard was at it again, as he tracked down a pass that seemed destined to be another Eric Ebron touchdown catch. The Howard interception put the Dolphins on their own 6, and they would kneel to take the game into halftime.

The third quarter belonged to the Dolphins, as they put points on the scoreboard on their first two possessions of the second half (29 yard Jason Sanders field goal and 14 yard rushing TD by Kenyan Drake), and forced Indianapolis to a punt and a missed field goal on their third quarter possessions. Indianapolis finally found their groove in the fourth quarter, scoring 13 unanswered points to close out the game, Luck’s second end zone connection to Eric Ebron tied the game at 24, and Adam Vinatieri sealed the comeback with a 32 yard game winner as time expired.

Final thoughts:

This game was a lot closer than I anticipated. The Colts really struggled to get things going on offense in the first half. Three first half turnovers, and multiple penalties, kept the high flying offense grounded for much of the day. An excellent fourth quarter was the Colts key to victory. Two great defensive stops that forced the Dolphins to punt, set up good field position on two Indianapolis scoring drives. This was Andrew Luck’s 20th game winning drive and it couldn’t have come at a better time for the Colts. Now at 6-5, and tied for the 6th seed in the AFC playoff race, Indianapolis can’t afford to let off the gas pedal. As for this week, a hard earned victory puts the win streak at 5, and the Colts will gear up for a road trip to Jacksonville next Sunday.

Photo Credit: IndianapolisStar.com

Week 12 preview: Colts vs Dolphins

After starting off the season 3-0, the Miami Dolphins have swum into colder waters since. Having dropped 4 of their last 5, they find themselves competing for a wildcard spot, and are two games behind the New England Patriots (7-3) in the AFC East. Miami is a bit hard to pin down. They’ve shown the ability to beat a top team like the Chicago Bears (who are 8-3), but have also been locked in tight battles or lost to sub-par teams like the Raiders and Lions. A lot of that probably has to do with Miami missing quarterback Ryan Tannehill who has not played since week 5 against the Cincinnati Bengals. Up to that point Tannehill was playing pretty solid football. In five games played, he’s logged just under 1,000 yards, 8 touchdown passes, and has completed over 65% of his passes. While Brock Osweiler was serviceable in Tannehill’s absence, I’m sure the Dolphins are happy to have their starter back under center. Despite the recent slide, this Miami Dolphins team is not without its playmakers.

On the defense, star linebacker Kiko Alonso is currently second in the NFL in combined tackles (89), which sits behind only the Colts’ own Darius Leonard (104). Alonso has been playing very well in pass coverage this season, as he has compiled 6 pass deflections as well as 3 interceptions. He has also forced 3 fumbles this year.

On the offensive side, the Dolphins have a solid left tackle in Leremy Tunsil, that will help protect Ryan Tannehill’s blind side. Tunsil hasn’t allowed a sack all season, but did miss last weeks’ matchup against the Green Bay Packers. We’ll see if the week off will do anything to dampen his stellar performance this year. This will also be a return to Indianapolis for veteran Frank Gore. Gore 528 yards on the ground this year and is averaging 4.5 yards per carry. While his yardage isn’t incredible this year, his ability hasn’t faded, and can’t be looked past by this Indianapolis defense.

For Indianapolis, they’ll be playing their third straight home game, and bring a four game winning streak into week 12. Right now, the Colts offense is firing on all cylinders, as they are averaging 36.5 points per game during their winning streak. The defense has also done their part, as they are giving up just 17.25 points per game and have forced 9 turnovers over the same stretch. There are multiple reasons for the Colts awakening from their 1-5 slumber. To start, Andrew Luck is playing MVP level football. Luck has 7 straight games of 3 or more passing touchdowns, and now has 29 touchdowns on the year.

One reason Luck’s stats are so good? The Indianapolis offensive line. The Colts have only given up 10 sacks this year (2nd in NFL and 1st in AFC). More impressive, is that they haven’t given up any sacks in the last 5 games. A clean pocket for Luck equals points on the board for the Colts. Another reason for the boost in Luck’s touchdown production is the excellent communication he has with Eric Ebron and the rest of his tight end group. Luck has connected 15 times for touchdowns to his tight ends, and a big part of that number is Eric Ebron having a career year. Ebron leads all NFL tight ends with 9 receiving touchdowns and also has 1 rushing touchdown.

As the Colts take the field today, they find themselves in a similar scenario as the Dolphins at this point in the season. Both teams are 5-5, both are tied for an AFC wildcard spot (with Titans, Bengals, and Ravens as well), and both are in second place in their respective divisions. The difference, is that Indianapolis is trending upwards, and Miami the opposite. As they meet at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday afternoon, both teams recognize this game could have major playoff implications.

My prediction: Miami has struggled on offense as of late. Averaging just 16 points over the last 3 games, Ryan Tannehill’s return couldn’t come at a better time. That being said, I don’t believe Tannehill will be able to cover up enough holes to keep the Indianapolis defense from collecting turnovers. The Colts defense has logged at least 1 turnover in every game this season, and I don’t think the Dolphins will put an end to that streak. The Colts offense is red hot right now, as they’re averaging over 36 points per game over their last 3. A hot offense paired with a defense who turns the ball over is a nightmare for opposing teams. I’ve got Indianapolis winning this one 34-20, and improving to 6-5 on the year.

Photo Credit: Andy Lyons/ Getty Images

Ebron scores hat trick; Colts hold off Jaguars comeback attempt to win 29-26

It was a tale of two halves in Sunday’s contest between the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars. Andrew Luck had the hot hand early, as he marched the Colts down the field on the games’ opening drive, completing passes to four different receivers. On Luck’s fourth completion, he hooked up with a wide open Eric Ebron. Ebron was able to tip toe the sideline and leap towards the pylon for the games’ first score. (the first of three Eric Ebron touchdowns on the day).

After a punt by each team, the Jaguars offense settled in to a quick, five play drive. Jacksonville quarterback Blake Bortles found former Colts receiver Donte Moncrief for an 80 yards strike to tie up the game. Moncrief would finish with 3 receptions 98 yards and that touchdown.

The Colts would answer quickly on the next drive, as Luck hooked up with wide receiver T.Y. Hilton and tight end Mo Alie-Cox for gains of 35 and 27 yards respectively to set the Colts up near the end zone. This allowed for a two yard touchdown run on 3rd and goal by Eric Ebron. The ensuing Adam Vinatieri extra point put the game at 14-7.

A quick series by the Jaguars ended in a punt, and the Colts took an opportunity to extend their lead on their next possession. Running back Jordan Wilkins would make the most of his only carry of the day, as he gashed the Jacksonville defense on a 53 yards run. An excellent pancake block by rookie Quenton Nelson sprung Wilkins for the huge chunk play. Two Andrew Luck completions later, Eric Ebron would find himself wide open for yet another touchdown. Ebron now has 39 receptions, 9 receiving touchdowns, and 10 total touchdowns on the year. Having already eclipsed his career best touchdown numbers, Ebron sets his sights on his best statistical season since entering the league as a first round pick in 2014.

The Jaguars followed the third Eric Ebron touchdown with a touchdown run by second year running back Leonard Fournette. The Josh Lambo point after attempt would be blocked and nearly returned by linebacker Anthony Walker, but the would be two points for Indianapolis were unfortunately called back due to a low block. The Indianapolis offense however, would take the energy of that blocked kick, and filter it into even more points. The Colts capped their 10 play, 75 yard drive with a passing touchdown from Andrew Luck to Mo Alie-Cox. A Jacksonville penalty on the point after attempt allowed for the Colts to try a two-point conversion from the 1 yard line. The Colts offensive line paved the way for running back Marlon Mack, as he slid between left tackle Anthony Castonzo and Left Guard Quenton Nelson for the successful two-point conversion. This put the game at 29-13.

Jacksonville used all but five seconds of the remaining time to sneak in a Josh Lambo field goal, as he knocked a 28 yarder through the uprights. A quick kneel down by the Colts offense took the game into the half with a score of 29-16. The second half wasn’t nearly as spectacular for Indianapolis. Jacksonville made several adjustments, and shut out Indianapolis for the final two quarters as they attempted to mount a comeback. Indy’s possessions looked awful on paper, as two punts, an interception, and a missed field goal kept the game interesting for the rest of the afternoon. Jacksonville opened the second half with an exhausting 17 play touchdown drive that lasted 8 minutes and 35 seconds. Leonard Fournette would score his second touchdown of the day on a 1 yard reception.

So, right out of the gate the Colts lead shrunk to just 6 points after leading by as much as 16. The next Indianapolis drive was a quick three and out, and Jacksonville regained possession at their 39 yard line. This drive would end with one of the key plays of this game, as Jacksonville kicker Josh Lambo missed a 52 yard field goal wide left, as the Colts maintained a 6 point lead.

Four plays later, a tipped pass would result in an interception by the Jaguars’ Telvin Smith. Fortunately for the Colts, the Blake Bortles led offense wasn’t able to capitalize on the turnover, as they were forced to punt on the ensuing possession. The lead would shrink by 3 more points on the next Jacksonville possession however, as Josh Lambo keyed in from long distance, and knocked a 55 yarder through the uprights. The next Indianapolis possession made Colts fans cringe, as Adam Vinatieri would have a rare miss in clutch time. Vinatieri shanked a 52 yarder wide right, and set up the Jaguars offense in excellent field position to stage an upset.

By this point in the game, the Jaguars offense was riding a wave of momentum, and moving quickly into scoring position. Inside two minutes, Blake Bortles completed a pass to wide receiver Rashad Greene, and suddenly magic happened. Cornerback Kenny Moore III, who had himself quite the day with two pass deflections, was able to rip the ball out of Greene’s hands at the last moment. A play that was initially called a reception and down by contact, was reviewed and showed Greene losing possession just before his knee hit the turf. Safety Malik Hooker pounced on top of the ball, as the Indianapolis defense made a clutch, game saving turnover. A few kneel downs later, and the Colts survived for their 3rd straight victory 29-26.

Keys to victory:

Fast start: The Indianapolis offense was able to keep Jacksonville on their heels for the entire first half. Finding multiple broken coverages that led to big chunk plays, the Indy offense sprinted out to a 16 point lead at one point.

Offensive line: For the fourth consecutive week, Andrew Luck has not taken a sack. This has been a breath of fresh air for Colts fans who saw the Colts give up a league high 56 sacks last year. Indy currently ranks 2nd in sacks allowed (10), just behind the New Orleans Saints with 9. Clearly, the choice to pick left guard Quenton Nelson at #6 overall is paying dividends. Nelson is looking like he’ll be a perennial all-pro.

Clutch defense: Blake Bortles found a way to be pretty consistent against this Colts defense. His final stat line was 26/38, 320 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions. So, what’s one of the best ways to stop an effective passer? Force turnovers on the receivers. The Indianapolis defense clawed and scratched at the ball all day with no success, but their persistence payed off late, as wide receiver Rashad Greene lost control of the ball deep in Indianapolis territory and cornerback Kenny Moore III forced a turnover on the play of the game.

Things to work on:

Stay consistent for 4 quarters: A great first half was nearly just that, because the Colts offense was stymied in the second. Two punts, an interception, and a missed field goal in the second half gave Jacksonville a fighting chance. A win is a win, but if Indy hopes to keep the streak going and make a playoff push, they’ll need to have the, “obsession to finish” that head coach Frank Reich has preached since training camp.

Kicking game: I don’t know what’s up with Adam Vinatieri lately, but he doesn’t seem himself. A case of the yips? Injury? Old age? At any rate, he hasn’t been as clutchy as in years past. With the playoffs looming, and many teams competing for a wildcard spot, a missed kick could mean not playing playoff football in January.

Rookie Mistakes: Momentum is a very real thing in football. It energizes fans and players alike. So, when a rare blocked and returned extra point happens, you get pumped! However, when that same return is called back for an unnecessary low block, you scream at your television, because that penalty wiped out a 3 point swing on the scoreboard. If the Colts want to be a playoff team, they need to play smart in all three phases (offense, defense, and special teams).

Next week, another divisional opponent comes to Indianapolis. The Tennessee Titans are coming off an impressive dismantling of the New England Patriots 34-10. The Titans have the top ranked defense In points against (16.8), and rank in the top 10 in several other defensive categories. The good news for the Colts, is that the Titans offense ranks in the bottom 3 in most categories. This team is built a lot like the Jaguars, and will be another tough matchup for this Indianapolis team. Kickoff is scheduled for 1pm eastern time next Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Photo Credit : Getty Images