Game Preview: Colts @ Jaguars

After their bye week and three straight home games, the Colts are taking their first road trip since traveling to Oakland in October. The forecast for tomorrow calls for thunderstorms in the Jacksonville area, so it will be interesting to see if the elements play a factor, especially for an indoor team like the Colts.

Since their week 10 matchup in Indianapolis, this Jaguars team has a wildly different look. Earlier this week, quarterback Blake Bortles was benched in favor of Cody Kessler, they fired their offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, Leonard Fournette landed a 1-game suspension after landing a couple punches against the Buffalo Bills, Guard Andrew Norwell was placed on the Injured Reserve, and last but not least, cornerback Jalen Ramsey is questionable (due to injury) to play after starting every game in his NFL career.

As you can see, that’s a lot of changes so I’ll break them down one at a time.

Bortles: Pulling Bortles this week is a bit puzzling to me because, Bortles has historically put up solid numbers against the Colts. Even in the week 10 loss, Bortles threw for 320 yards and 2 touchdowns. Bortles career stats against Indianapolis are 187 of 302, 61.9% completion percentage, 2384 yards, and 14:3 touchdown to interception ratio. He does have a losing record against the Colts overall (4-5), but boasts a 3-1 record in home games against Indy. Cody Kessler has one game of regular season action this year (against Houston Texans), and the results were so-so. On that day Kessler finished 21-30, for 1 touchdown, 1 interception, 1 fumble, and was sacked 4 times in a 20-7 defeat.

Nathaniel Hackett: After coaching a sixth ranked offense that propelled the Jaguars to the AFC championship, many people expected more out of Hackett this year. Unfortunately for him, his offense took a nosedive this year. Falling to 22nd overall in total offense, having to fight through numerous injuries, and overcome poor quarterback play, Hackett just couldn’t hack it in Jacksonville. This Sunday, his former duties will be taken over by quarterbacks coach and interim offensive coordinator Scott Milanovich.

Leonard Fournette: Well, it seems as if the Jaguars’ season of frustration materialized in the form of a Fournette fist fight last week. The second year running back, who has spent much of the season sidelined with a hamstring injury, lost his temper during a loss against the Buffalo Bills. Losing is tough at any point. Jacksonville started out 3-1, and had Super Bowl aspirations to begin the year, but they have now fallen to 3-8, and are in the mix for a top 10 draft pick. The raw emotion of that disappointment has reared it’s ugly head, and the Jaguars are no better for it.

Andrew Norwell: The highest paid guard in the NFL, will unfortunately be sidelined for the rest of the 2018 season. An ankle injury sustained in Sunday’s loss to the Buffalo Bills adds to the seemingly never ending list of injuries to the Jacksonville offensive line. Left tackle Cam Robinson, Center Brandon Linder, and backup left tackle Josh Wells were all critical losses. Norwell seems to be the final nail in the coffin for this beat up o-line. Good luck back there Cody Kessler!

Jalen Ramsey: One of the NFL’s most talented young cornerbacks could miss the first game of his career on Sunday. Starting the week off with back-to-back “Did Not Practice” designations, the All-Pro finally logged a limited practice on Friday. Ramsey will be listed as questionable, with no word on whether he will even be available.

The Colts are not without their own set of injuries this week. Jack Doyle’s season came to an end this week, as he suffered a kidney injury that came at the end of Indianapolis’ win against the Miami Dolphins. The tight end spot, which had been a great position for depth, became much more shallow this week. Tight end Mo Alie-Cox is listed as OUT for this week’s matchup as well. This leaves Indy with Eric Ebron, and either Ryan Hewitt or Eric Swoope to fill the TE2 gap. Center Ryan Kelly will miss this week as well. After sustaining a knee injury against Miami, Kelly was unable to practice all week. Quite a few names are listed on the “questionable” designation, but most names in the list should play. The biggest concern of the “questionable” list is probably running back Marlon Mack, who is making his way back from a concussion.

Now that you’re all caught up, let’s talk about this weekend’s game. With all of the changes that Jacksonville has endured just over the course of this week, I have trouble believing they’ll be as competitive as a Bortles-led team. Granted, Kessler has some playing time this year, but changing coordinators and having to deal will several key injuries/suspensions to offensive players will be Cody Kessler’s bane this weekend. I’ll be looking for Darius Leonard, Malik Hooker and the rest of the Colts’ defense to force several turnovers.

For the Colts offense, sticking to fundamentals and just finding a way to move the chains will be critical. It’s supposed to be rainy and sloppy and gross. This week Indianapolis has to protect the ball and figure out a way to be effective on the ground. I think the rain might slow down this fast paced offense a little bit, so maintaining possession with slow methodical drives will be imperative. Andrew Luck has thrown at least 3 touchdowns in 8 straight games. This week however, Luck might need to take a back seat to his running backs and let them keep the ball dry. In week 10, Colts running backs ran for 85 yards on 16 carries, including a big 53 yard scamper by Jordan Wilkins. They’ll need that kind of big play production this week against a defense that still ranks 9th overall.

I think this game might be a lot closer that many may want to believe. If the elements play a factor in this game, Indianapolis’ fast offense, may have to take what the conditions give them. That being said, I don’t think a banged up Cody Kessler-led offense out duels Andrew Luck and company. I’ve got Indianapolis winning their 6th straight to stay close behind Houston in the AFC South hunt.

Indianapolis: 24 Jacksonville: 13

Photo credit: Colts.com

Week 12 preview: Colts vs Dolphins

After starting off the season 3-0, the Miami Dolphins have swum into colder waters since. Having dropped 4 of their last 5, they find themselves competing for a wildcard spot, and are two games behind the New England Patriots (7-3) in the AFC East. Miami is a bit hard to pin down. They’ve shown the ability to beat a top team like the Chicago Bears (who are 8-3), but have also been locked in tight battles or lost to sub-par teams like the Raiders and Lions. A lot of that probably has to do with Miami missing quarterback Ryan Tannehill who has not played since week 5 against the Cincinnati Bengals. Up to that point Tannehill was playing pretty solid football. In five games played, he’s logged just under 1,000 yards, 8 touchdown passes, and has completed over 65% of his passes. While Brock Osweiler was serviceable in Tannehill’s absence, I’m sure the Dolphins are happy to have their starter back under center. Despite the recent slide, this Miami Dolphins team is not without its playmakers.

On the defense, star linebacker Kiko Alonso is currently second in the NFL in combined tackles (89), which sits behind only the Colts’ own Darius Leonard (104). Alonso has been playing very well in pass coverage this season, as he has compiled 6 pass deflections as well as 3 interceptions. He has also forced 3 fumbles this year.

On the offensive side, the Dolphins have a solid left tackle in Leremy Tunsil, that will help protect Ryan Tannehill’s blind side. Tunsil hasn’t allowed a sack all season, but did miss last weeks’ matchup against the Green Bay Packers. We’ll see if the week off will do anything to dampen his stellar performance this year. This will also be a return to Indianapolis for veteran Frank Gore. Gore 528 yards on the ground this year and is averaging 4.5 yards per carry. While his yardage isn’t incredible this year, his ability hasn’t faded, and can’t be looked past by this Indianapolis defense.

For Indianapolis, they’ll be playing their third straight home game, and bring a four game winning streak into week 12. Right now, the Colts offense is firing on all cylinders, as they are averaging 36.5 points per game during their winning streak. The defense has also done their part, as they are giving up just 17.25 points per game and have forced 9 turnovers over the same stretch. There are multiple reasons for the Colts awakening from their 1-5 slumber. To start, Andrew Luck is playing MVP level football. Luck has 7 straight games of 3 or more passing touchdowns, and now has 29 touchdowns on the year.

One reason Luck’s stats are so good? The Indianapolis offensive line. The Colts have only given up 10 sacks this year (2nd in NFL and 1st in AFC). More impressive, is that they haven’t given up any sacks in the last 5 games. A clean pocket for Luck equals points on the board for the Colts. Another reason for the boost in Luck’s touchdown production is the excellent communication he has with Eric Ebron and the rest of his tight end group. Luck has connected 15 times for touchdowns to his tight ends, and a big part of that number is Eric Ebron having a career year. Ebron leads all NFL tight ends with 9 receiving touchdowns and also has 1 rushing touchdown.

As the Colts take the field today, they find themselves in a similar scenario as the Dolphins at this point in the season. Both teams are 5-5, both are tied for an AFC wildcard spot (with Titans, Bengals, and Ravens as well), and both are in second place in their respective divisions. The difference, is that Indianapolis is trending upwards, and Miami the opposite. As they meet at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday afternoon, both teams recognize this game could have major playoff implications.

My prediction: Miami has struggled on offense as of late. Averaging just 16 points over the last 3 games, Ryan Tannehill’s return couldn’t come at a better time. That being said, I don’t believe Tannehill will be able to cover up enough holes to keep the Indianapolis defense from collecting turnovers. The Colts defense has logged at least 1 turnover in every game this season, and I don’t think the Dolphins will put an end to that streak. The Colts offense is red hot right now, as they’re averaging over 36 points per game over their last 3. A hot offense paired with a defense who turns the ball over is a nightmare for opposing teams. I’ve got Indianapolis winning this one 34-20, and improving to 6-5 on the year.

Photo Credit: Andy Lyons/ Getty Images

After 1-5 start, Colts are back from the dead with 4th straight win

Just 5 weeks ago, many Colts fans on the various Facebook comment sections and message boards were ready to call in the 2018 season. They had dropped 4 straight games (3 of which were one score games), and were 1-5, after a failed comeback attempt against the Jets. However, there is resilience in this team. That resilience, mixed with an easier second half schedule has become a dangerous combination over the course of the last month. Now, Indianapolis has won four games in a row, and are in the thick of the wildcard race. They have clawed back to second place in the AFC South standings as well, behind only the 7-3 Houston Texans (who they will play in week 14).

Keys to victory against Titans

Andrew Luck: It’s been really great to see Luck back on the field in any capacity this year, but he’s exceeding even the highest of expectations so far this season. He now has 7 straight games with at least 3 touchdown passes, and 33 straight performances with at least 1 touchdown pass. Tallying 29 touchdowns to 9 interceptions, Luck is on pace to eclipse his career best in touchdowns, and close to a pace that would break Peyton Manning’s franchise record for touchdown passes in a season (49). Currently Luck is throwing an average of 2.9 touchdowns per game, which puts him on pace for 46.4 to end the season.

Offensive Line: Have you ever seen a cleaner pocket than what we’ve witnessed over the past month? When’s the last time you saw an effective Colts running game before this year? This is all thanks to great draft picks and free agent acquisitions by GM Chris Ballard. Improving the o-line was one of his priorities this last offseason, and boy did he deliver! Last season the Colts gave up a league worst 56 sacks. This year big number 56 Quenton Nelson, seems to have changed the identity of this line all by himself, as he’s become the vocal leader of the line, and has shown incredible sportsmanship on the field. Always rushing over to pick up his teammates, always there to congratulate teammates on touchdowns. You couldn’t ask for a better 1st round pick. The line has miraculously turned it around this season and is just 1 sack behind the Saints for first place in that category.

Hungry Defense: The Colts have forced at least one turnover in every game this season. (Two forced against Tennessee) Matt Eberflus’ system has been welcomed with open arms this year, as I believe the transition to the 4-3 scheme has been seamless. The Colts are up to 26 sacks on the year, after only getting to 25 last year, and have forced 19 turnovers. They also have great young talent including Darius Leonard, Kenny Moore III, and Malik Hooker, which means we could see this type of energized defensive play for years to come.

Final Thoughts:

With the Texans writing the textbook on winning close games, and leading the AFC South at 7-3, it may be more realistic to see the Colts contending for a wildcard spot. The #6 seed is wide open, as the Bengals, Ravens, Dolphins and Titans are all tied with Indianapolis at 5-5. Over the next six weeks, the Colts play just one opponent with a winning record (Houston Texans week 14). Two of those games are against teams the Colts have already beaten once, so the remaining schedule is definitely worthy of some optimism. If they don’t manage to sneak into the playoffs however, Frank Reich and the Colts have proven many things to their doubters. Luck is back and playing at his best, Reich, albeit the backup option for Indianapolis, undoubtedly has the chops for being an NFL head coach, and there’s a lot of reason to believe that Indy will be one of the top teams in the league next year. Another offseason of solid free agency and draft picks, could ascend Indianapolis to heights not seen since the 2006-2007 season.

AFC South Standings

Houston: 7-3 W7

Indianapolis: 5-5 W4

Tennessee: 5-5 L1

Jacksonville: 5-5 L6

Photo Credit: South Bend Tribune

Week 10 preview: Colts vs Jaguars

Coming off of two straight victories and a bye week, Indianapolis begins a three game home stand, that starts with the Jacksonville Jaguars. This will be just the second divisional matchup this season for the Colts. They dropped an overtime game against the Houston Texans back in late September. This will also be just the fourth home game for the Colts. After completing five of their eight away games in the first half of the season, they have a favorable second half schedule that, more or less, allows them to control their own destiny. Five divisional matchups are set over the final eight games, including one against the AFC South leading Texans. Also, they play just one team with a winning record in the final stretch (Miami Dolphins 5-4).

Sunday, Jacksonville arrives in Indianapolis bringing along a four game losing streak, after beginning the season 3-1. They also bring an offense that ranks near the bottom of the league in most categories. Ranking 30th in points per game (16.8), 22nd in total yards per game ( 352.5), and 25th in rushing yards per game (95), the Jaguars struggling offense is just what the Indianapolis defense is hoping to feed on. Tied for 3rd in fumble recoveries and 10th in interceptions, this Colts defense has exhibited a significant hunger the ball this season.

On the defensive side of the ball, it’s a far different story for the Jaguars, as they rank in the top 10 in nearly every category. With stats like Total yards against (1st), passing yards against (1st), points against (8th), the Jacksonville defense will be one of the most formidable opponents the Colts have seen so far.

Where the Colts may find an edge is in the rushing game. Jacksonville is giving up 123.3 rushing yards per game (24th). What is significant about that, is that Indianapolis has compiled 220+ yards on the ground in each of their last two games, and as long as their trio of running backs (Mack, Hines, and Wilkins) stay healthy, there doesn’t seem to be any sign of them slowing down. Marlon Mack especially has been effective lately, as he has raced his way to 258 rushing yards over the last two games.

Indianapolis will certainly have to play their best offensive football of the year in this game. One year ago, the Jaguars came into Lucas Oil Stadium and shut out the Jacoby Brissett led Colts, while decimating the offensive line to the tune of 10 sacks. Now, this Colts offensive line is much improved in 2018. Indianapolis has given up just one sack in their last 4 games. In fact, they’ve given up just 8 sacks all year, which ranks 2nd, behind only the New Orleans Saints. This has not only allowed for the recent running game explosion, but has also given Andrew Luck the time to throw 23 touchdowns, which ranks 2nd in the NFL. The Colts also rank 6th in points per game with 28.6.

Its the classic story of high powered offense vs stout and aggressive defense. In this game, I predict that Indianapolis will try and pound the rock as much as possible. Getting the ground game going early and setting the pace will be essential for the Colts’ success. Limiting mistakes (especially turnovers) will also be critical. The Colts are 1-4 this year when they turn the ball over, compared to 2-1 when they don’t. It’s also notable that if not for an excellent 4th quarter goal line stand by the Eagles, the Colts could be looking at 3-0 in that category.

All in all, I think this one will be a fairly low scoring affair. Defensively, the Jaguars are an imposing team with a lot of Pro Bowl level talent and recognizable names at nearly every position. On the line, Nose Tackle Marcell Dareus will try and plug up the middle while defensive ends Yannick Ngakoue and Calais Campbell will try to create an intimidating pass rush. In the linebacking core, Middle Linebacker Myles Jack has the speed and athleticism to take away a lot of the underneath passing routes, and cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye will try and keep Andrew Luck from stretching the field with receivers T.Y. Hilton and Chester Rogers.

My prediction:

I’ve got Indianapolis winning an OT nail-biter to get their first AFC South division win.

Jacksonville 17 Indianapolis 20

Picture credit: BleacherReport.com

Colts 1-3; Quarterly review

The first quarter of the 2018 season is over. A somber tone has set in amongst the Colts fan base. Some fans are already calling it in, and are optimistic for next year, while others still cling onto small shreds of hope and pride. Sunday was a heartbreaker. After battling back from an 18 point deficit, the Colts could only watch, as Houston Texans kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn nailed a 37 yarder to win in overtime. Now Indianapolis finds themselves at 1-3, and last place in the AFC South. Weeks 1-4 weren’t pretty, but there are pieces to build on moving forward.

1) Andrew Luck’s shoulder is healthy, and this past Sunday was proof. 40 completions on 64 attempts for 464 yards (all career highs) 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions against Houston. He played as well as you could as for, against a solid defensive team in the Houston Texans. Yes, there were some early miscues, but overall, this was classic Andrew Luck, and let’s hope he’s here to stay.

2) Nyheim Hines is stepping up as a quality receiving back. Whether it’s snaps from the slot, or coming out of the backfield, Hines has shown that he belongs in this Indianapolis offense. At 22 receptions after four weeks, the rookie is on pace to catch 88 passes this year. That production will likely taper off, as I don’t see Luck throwing 62 passes again anytime soon; However, it’s good to see Luck has found another reliable target.

3) It’s not just Darius Leonard making noise on the defense. While the rookie did perform admirably on Sunday, several others joined in what was a festival of sacks on Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson. Indianapolis sacked Watson 7 times with 8 Colts registering at least 0.5 sacks on the day. They also registered 11 tackles behind the line of scrimmage and 11 quarterback hits. Indianapolis also recorded 2 pass deflections and an interception by cornerback Pierre Desir.

My grade for this quarter is D+. While there are plenty of positive takeaways, the Colts need to finish their work. 17 sacks in 4 weeks is great, a 9:3 TD to INT ratio for Luck is great, but it means nothing if they don’t register W’s.

The Colts do however have something to work with. They have a foundation, a ton of young talent, and a bunch of cap space to make waves in the off-season or potentially before the trade deadline. With whispers of trade interest in Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell have being heard, as well as, the need for wide receiver help, the Colts look like a potential landing spot for big acquisitions. While Indianapolis general manager Chris Ballard has long been focused on building the team through the draft, you have to wonder if he’ll want to spend at least some of the Colts’ hard earned nest egg. Names like Bell and Dez Bryant have been tossed around, but plenty of big names are set to be on the free agent market in 2019. Names like Green Bay wide receiver Randall Cobb, Detroit wide receiver Golden Tate, Dallas defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence, and Houston outside linebacker Jedeveon Clowney are all set to be unrestricted free agents. It’s hard to predict what Ballard will do, but it’s fun to think about the possibilities.

Colts sit at 1-3 as they prepare to face Patriots on Thursday night

This past Sunday, head coach Frank Reich may have made the best, bad decision in the history of Colts football. Facing a 4th and 4 on their own 43 yard line in OT, Frank Reich chose to gamble. He chose to put the game in his best player’s hands, but unfortunately Luck (and Chester Rogers) couldn’t deliver. Three plays later, the Houston Texans would take the victory on a Ka’imi Fairbairn 37 yard field goal.

Sometimes though, it’s what you learn in losses that make you a better, more resilient team. By taking that shot, and putting his confidence in the offense to go make a play, Frank Reich now has everyone on the same page. This head coach doesn’t want to dwell on the what if’s, he wants it black and white. Win or lose, no grey areas. He wants his team to be aggressive. He wants his team to have, “an obsession to finish”.

With the Colts now at 1-3, it’s left many fans disgruntled. Critical turnovers, some key injuries, and costly penalties have shown that missing a couple of the little things are what can turn a spotless record into one that’s sub par. In week one, it was a Jack Doyle fumble, in week 3 it was penalties and poor execution in the red zone, and week 4 it was 14 points given up off of turnovers.

Now the Colts will go to Foxboro, and kick off week 5 action Thursday against the New England Patriots. This will be their toughest test so far. It won’t be tough for the obvious reasons of New England playing at home, or because Tom Brady is under center for the Pats. The game will be tough because there’s an urgency to win, and a stigma that says the Colts can’t/won’t win this game. The media says they won’t, the fans say they won’t, the casinos say they won’t, and history says they won’t. The Colts haven’t beaten the Patriots this decade, as New England has gone 7-0 in their matchups since 2010. Andrew Luck, who entered the league in 2012, is 0-5 in those matchups.

Maybe it’s time for a Colts win. At 2-2, New England isn’t exactly playing their best football. They still have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, but something seems a bit off. Aside from their week 4 win over the Miami Dolphins, they look out of sync. Taking losses to Detroit and Jacksonville, they’ve shown that they have weaknesses, and that they aren’t the super heroes they have been in the past.

If Indianapolis can play its best game of the season, they just might have a shot at taking out the Patriots and beginning a string of victories. After Thursday, they’ll have two games against rookie quarterbacks (Sam Darnold-Jets and Josh Allen-Bills), and then head to Oakland to play a Raiders team that seems to lack an identity since trading away Khalil Mack. Those 3 teams only have 3 wins collectively (3-9 overall). This could put Indianapolis in a more reasonable spot when they hit the bye in week 9.

Before the “easy” games though, the Colts have an opportunity to stick it to Josh McDaniels who left them at the alter during the off-season coaching search. Who better to help them, than the former Eagles offensive coordinator, Frank Reich, who beat them in the Super Bowl in February? They also have the opportunity to make this a rivalry again, because let’s be honest…there has been nothing resembling competitiveness in this series for almost a decade.

This week, I’m predicting more of the same in this series. Indianapolis came out of the Texans game really banged up. On Monday, they had 8 players who didn’t practice, and several more on a limited practice. That may seem natural for a Monday any other week, but knowing that they play Thursday night is cause for concern. It’s not rotational players getting injured either, it’s the starters. Notable injuries on the Did Not Practice list are as follows:

Wide Receiver-T.Y. Hilton (chest/hamstring)

Tight End-Jack Doyle (hip)

Linebacker-Darius Leonard (ankle)

Center-Ryan Kelly (hand)

Cornerback-Nate Hairston (ankle)

Defensive Tackle-Hassan Ridgeway (calf)

Cornerback-Quincy Wilson (concussion)

Cornerback-Kenny Moore (concussion)

With these big names here, and several others, such as left tackle Anthony Castonzo (hamstring) practicing on a limited basis, the Colts are in trouble if they can’t find a magic healing elixir by Thursday.

IND: 20 NE: 38

Photo credit: USA Today Sports