Game Preview: Colts @ Jaguars

After their bye week and three straight home games, the Colts are taking their first road trip since traveling to Oakland in October. The forecast for tomorrow calls for thunderstorms in the Jacksonville area, so it will be interesting to see if the elements play a factor, especially for an indoor team like the Colts.

Since their week 10 matchup in Indianapolis, this Jaguars team has a wildly different look. Earlier this week, quarterback Blake Bortles was benched in favor of Cody Kessler, they fired their offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, Leonard Fournette landed a 1-game suspension after landing a couple punches against the Buffalo Bills, Guard Andrew Norwell was placed on the Injured Reserve, and last but not least, cornerback Jalen Ramsey is questionable (due to injury) to play after starting every game in his NFL career.

As you can see, that’s a lot of changes so I’ll break them down one at a time.

Bortles: Pulling Bortles this week is a bit puzzling to me because, Bortles has historically put up solid numbers against the Colts. Even in the week 10 loss, Bortles threw for 320 yards and 2 touchdowns. Bortles career stats against Indianapolis are 187 of 302, 61.9% completion percentage, 2384 yards, and 14:3 touchdown to interception ratio. He does have a losing record against the Colts overall (4-5), but boasts a 3-1 record in home games against Indy. Cody Kessler has one game of regular season action this year (against Houston Texans), and the results were so-so. On that day Kessler finished 21-30, for 1 touchdown, 1 interception, 1 fumble, and was sacked 4 times in a 20-7 defeat.

Nathaniel Hackett: After coaching a sixth ranked offense that propelled the Jaguars to the AFC championship, many people expected more out of Hackett this year. Unfortunately for him, his offense took a nosedive this year. Falling to 22nd overall in total offense, having to fight through numerous injuries, and overcome poor quarterback play, Hackett just couldn’t hack it in Jacksonville. This Sunday, his former duties will be taken over by quarterbacks coach and interim offensive coordinator Scott Milanovich.

Leonard Fournette: Well, it seems as if the Jaguars’ season of frustration materialized in the form of a Fournette fist fight last week. The second year running back, who has spent much of the season sidelined with a hamstring injury, lost his temper during a loss against the Buffalo Bills. Losing is tough at any point. Jacksonville started out 3-1, and had Super Bowl aspirations to begin the year, but they have now fallen to 3-8, and are in the mix for a top 10 draft pick. The raw emotion of that disappointment has reared it’s ugly head, and the Jaguars are no better for it.

Andrew Norwell: The highest paid guard in the NFL, will unfortunately be sidelined for the rest of the 2018 season. An ankle injury sustained in Sunday’s loss to the Buffalo Bills adds to the seemingly never ending list of injuries to the Jacksonville offensive line. Left tackle Cam Robinson, Center Brandon Linder, and backup left tackle Josh Wells were all critical losses. Norwell seems to be the final nail in the coffin for this beat up o-line. Good luck back there Cody Kessler!

Jalen Ramsey: One of the NFL’s most talented young cornerbacks could miss the first game of his career on Sunday. Starting the week off with back-to-back “Did Not Practice” designations, the All-Pro finally logged a limited practice on Friday. Ramsey will be listed as questionable, with no word on whether he will even be available.

The Colts are not without their own set of injuries this week. Jack Doyle’s season came to an end this week, as he suffered a kidney injury that came at the end of Indianapolis’ win against the Miami Dolphins. The tight end spot, which had been a great position for depth, became much more shallow this week. Tight end Mo Alie-Cox is listed as OUT for this week’s matchup as well. This leaves Indy with Eric Ebron, and either Ryan Hewitt or Eric Swoope to fill the TE2 gap. Center Ryan Kelly will miss this week as well. After sustaining a knee injury against Miami, Kelly was unable to practice all week. Quite a few names are listed on the “questionable” designation, but most names in the list should play. The biggest concern of the “questionable” list is probably running back Marlon Mack, who is making his way back from a concussion.

Now that you’re all caught up, let’s talk about this weekend’s game. With all of the changes that Jacksonville has endured just over the course of this week, I have trouble believing they’ll be as competitive as a Bortles-led team. Granted, Kessler has some playing time this year, but changing coordinators and having to deal will several key injuries/suspensions to offensive players will be Cody Kessler’s bane this weekend. I’ll be looking for Darius Leonard, Malik Hooker and the rest of the Colts’ defense to force several turnovers.

For the Colts offense, sticking to fundamentals and just finding a way to move the chains will be critical. It’s supposed to be rainy and sloppy and gross. This week Indianapolis has to protect the ball and figure out a way to be effective on the ground. I think the rain might slow down this fast paced offense a little bit, so maintaining possession with slow methodical drives will be imperative. Andrew Luck has thrown at least 3 touchdowns in 8 straight games. This week however, Luck might need to take a back seat to his running backs and let them keep the ball dry. In week 10, Colts running backs ran for 85 yards on 16 carries, including a big 53 yard scamper by Jordan Wilkins. They’ll need that kind of big play production this week against a defense that still ranks 9th overall.

I think this game might be a lot closer that many may want to believe. If the elements play a factor in this game, Indianapolis’ fast offense, may have to take what the conditions give them. That being said, I don’t think a banged up Cody Kessler-led offense out duels Andrew Luck and company. I’ve got Indianapolis winning their 6th straight to stay close behind Houston in the AFC South hunt.

Indianapolis: 24 Jacksonville: 13

Photo credit: Colts.com

Week 10 preview: Colts vs Jaguars

Coming off of two straight victories and a bye week, Indianapolis begins a three game home stand, that starts with the Jacksonville Jaguars. This will be just the second divisional matchup this season for the Colts. They dropped an overtime game against the Houston Texans back in late September. This will also be just the fourth home game for the Colts. After completing five of their eight away games in the first half of the season, they have a favorable second half schedule that, more or less, allows them to control their own destiny. Five divisional matchups are set over the final eight games, including one against the AFC South leading Texans. Also, they play just one team with a winning record in the final stretch (Miami Dolphins 5-4).

Sunday, Jacksonville arrives in Indianapolis bringing along a four game losing streak, after beginning the season 3-1. They also bring an offense that ranks near the bottom of the league in most categories. Ranking 30th in points per game (16.8), 22nd in total yards per game ( 352.5), and 25th in rushing yards per game (95), the Jaguars struggling offense is just what the Indianapolis defense is hoping to feed on. Tied for 3rd in fumble recoveries and 10th in interceptions, this Colts defense has exhibited a significant hunger the ball this season.

On the defensive side of the ball, it’s a far different story for the Jaguars, as they rank in the top 10 in nearly every category. With stats like Total yards against (1st), passing yards against (1st), points against (8th), the Jacksonville defense will be one of the most formidable opponents the Colts have seen so far.

Where the Colts may find an edge is in the rushing game. Jacksonville is giving up 123.3 rushing yards per game (24th). What is significant about that, is that Indianapolis has compiled 220+ yards on the ground in each of their last two games, and as long as their trio of running backs (Mack, Hines, and Wilkins) stay healthy, there doesn’t seem to be any sign of them slowing down. Marlon Mack especially has been effective lately, as he has raced his way to 258 rushing yards over the last two games.

Indianapolis will certainly have to play their best offensive football of the year in this game. One year ago, the Jaguars came into Lucas Oil Stadium and shut out the Jacoby Brissett led Colts, while decimating the offensive line to the tune of 10 sacks. Now, this Colts offensive line is much improved in 2018. Indianapolis has given up just one sack in their last 4 games. In fact, they’ve given up just 8 sacks all year, which ranks 2nd, behind only the New Orleans Saints. This has not only allowed for the recent running game explosion, but has also given Andrew Luck the time to throw 23 touchdowns, which ranks 2nd in the NFL. The Colts also rank 6th in points per game with 28.6.

Its the classic story of high powered offense vs stout and aggressive defense. In this game, I predict that Indianapolis will try and pound the rock as much as possible. Getting the ground game going early and setting the pace will be essential for the Colts’ success. Limiting mistakes (especially turnovers) will also be critical. The Colts are 1-4 this year when they turn the ball over, compared to 2-1 when they don’t. It’s also notable that if not for an excellent 4th quarter goal line stand by the Eagles, the Colts could be looking at 3-0 in that category.

All in all, I think this one will be a fairly low scoring affair. Defensively, the Jaguars are an imposing team with a lot of Pro Bowl level talent and recognizable names at nearly every position. On the line, Nose Tackle Marcell Dareus will try and plug up the middle while defensive ends Yannick Ngakoue and Calais Campbell will try to create an intimidating pass rush. In the linebacking core, Middle Linebacker Myles Jack has the speed and athleticism to take away a lot of the underneath passing routes, and cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye will try and keep Andrew Luck from stretching the field with receivers T.Y. Hilton and Chester Rogers.

My prediction:

I’ve got Indianapolis winning an OT nail-biter to get their first AFC South division win.

Jacksonville 17 Indianapolis 20

Picture credit: BleacherReport.com