Week 17 preview: Colts @ Titans

The game is a story of perseverance. Both teams have had their highs and lows during the season, but no matter the outcome of tonight’s game, they will both end with winning records.

The Colts’ first half of the season was a low note, as they fell to 1-5 out of the gate. The message boards and Facebook comment sections were a battlefield between those who screamed to, “Fire Reich” and “Bench Luck” and those who remained cautiously optimistic that their team still had a chance due to the rough shape of the entire AFC South at the time. (Houston led the division at just 4-3 at the time)

Now the Colts have come roaring back, and have placed themselves in a position to steal the AFC South crown, should the other two contenders slip up. Winning 8 of their last 9 games, Indy has become the hottest team in the league. They’ve killed winning streaks, beat playoff teams, and stifled premier running backs on their way to 9-6.

Tennessee began the year on a roller coaster ride. With 6 of their first 7 seven games being decided by a touchdown or less, the Titans managed to go 3-4 at the beginning of their 2018 campaign. Then, they dug in a little deeper, winning their next two against the Cowboys in Dallas and coming home to dismantle New England 34-10! Then another hiccup, as they dropped their next two to Indianapolis and Houston on the road, but they didn’t lose sight, and have managed to win their last 4 games on their way to 9-6. So, the big question for Tennessee is which version of their team will show up? Will it be the team that couldn’t seem to win the close games, or the more recent Titans who have won 6 of their last 8?

You can see a lot of similarities in these two teams. For example:

Both have forced a shutout

Both have been shut out

Both have had winning streaks of 4+ games

Both have losing streaks of 3 games

Both have top 10 defenses over the second half of the season.

Both defenses are holding teams to an average of 13.5 points or less in the last 4 weeks

There are differences though. These are the most lopsided of those differences:

Passing TD’s – Luck 2nd (36) > Mariota 29th (11)

PPG- IND 7th (26.7) > TEN 26th (19.5)

Rushing YPG- IND 21st (104) < TEN 5th (128.7)

Passing YPG- IND 6th (278.9) > TEN 29th (187.3)

PPG allowed- IND 13th (21.8) < TEN 2nd (18)

I think this will be a hard fought battle. I believe that the Titans of week 11 are a thing of the past, and they will show up in prime time in front of their home crowd at Nissan Stadium. That being said, the Tennessee has a lot of players playing banged up or missing the game due to injury. To me, there are two big things to watch for in this game. The first will be Marcus Mariota. If he does in fact play, what level will he be at? Stating that he was numb throughout his body last week raised eyebrows, and it will be interesting to see how effectively he will be able to grip and throw the football. The second, is watching how effective the Titans rush defense will be without starters Jurrell Casey and Brian Orakpo in the lineup. Colts’ running back Marlon Mack has shown great ability in many games this season, as he’s racked up nearly 800 yards and 8 rushing touchdowns on the year. With the run stopping Casey out of the lineup, will that mean a big night for Mack?

My prediction:

I think this game has the potential to be a shoot out. Titans running back Derrick Henry has been in a zone the last 4 weeks, but on the same token, the Darius Leonard and the Indy defense contained two of the NFL’s best backs in Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley. I say the Colts get the edge and the win for their ability to put points on the scoreboard and that they have a top 10 defense against a bottom 10 Titans offense. The Colts have a top 10 scoring and passing offense, and I think that will show on Sunday night. Indianapolis wins this one 31-20.

Photo Credit: AP Photo – Darron Cummings

Who to root for as a Colts fan in week 17

This year has been full of ups and downs for Indianapolis. Starting off 1-5 to begin the season, the Colts have managed to pull off a historic season saving comeback. Now, having won 8 of their last 9 games, the Colts control their own fate, as they travel to Tennessee to battle the Titans on Sunday Night Football.

Everything that needed to go right for the Colts in week 16, did! Last week, the Colts needed a win and a bit of help. With the Steelers falling to the Saints 31-28, the Colts got exactly the help they needed, and now face a, “win and you’re in” scenario in week 17. The Philadelphia Eagles also helped out, keeping the Colts’ divisional hopes alive, while beating the Texans 32-30 at Lincoln Financial Field. Should the Texans lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars this week, the Colts could capture the AFC South title and potentially the 3 seed. This result would give Indy a home game in the playoffs, and they would most likely host a 6th seeded Texans team.

So, in week 17, here are the games to watch:

Colts @ Titans: It’s win or go home on Sunday Night Football. A game that was originally slotted for 1pm, was flexed due to both teams battling for at least a 6th seed. The Titans are a bit banged up this week, as quarterback Marcus Mariota and defensive lineman Jurrell Casey suffered injuries in week 16. While Mariota is optimistic that he’ll start in week 17, he is still listed as questionable.

The Colts are arguably the hottest team in the NFL right now, having won 8 of their last 9 games. A week 11 trouncing of the Titans in Indianapolis, gives the Colts a lot of optimism in this road matchup. With a final score of 38-10, it was one of Indy’s more convincing wins on the season. Quarterback Andrew Luck brings a career record of 10-0 against Tennessee, and his last performance against this Titans team was one of his best. Luck finished that game 23 of 29 for 297 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. He also posted a passer rating of 143.8 (the second highest of his career). The Colts won the game so convincingly, that Luck was able to hand the reigns over to backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett for the final 10 minutes. Will it be another blowout this week, or does Tennessee have a music city miracle up their sleeves?

Houston vs Jacksonville:

Colts fans should be cheering for a Jacksonville team that shut them out just a few weeks ago. Blake Bortles is set to return to the starting lineup after somehow worse quarterback play with Cody Kessler at the helm. With any luck, Bortles will be the good version of himself this weekend, and help keep the Texans from taking AFC South crown. While it is unlikely, given the poor performances of Jacksonville this season, it’s not impossible. The Jaguars have won against the Colts, and managed to beat Tom Brady and the New England Patriots earlier this year. Perhaps Jacksonville create some of the magic that helped them in those wins, to overthrow the Texans in Houston.

Week 11 Preview: Colts vs Titans

Another week of Colts football is upon us! This week, Indianapolis will play host to the Tennessee Titans who are coming off an impressive 34-10 drubbing of the New England Patriots. In that game, the Titans’ defense was suffocating, causing the Patriots to punt on 6 of 12 possessions. They also forced a turnover on downs, and kept Tom Brady and company from scoring on drives just before halftime and the end of the game. Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski missed a 52 yard attempt as well, as the Titans defense successfully kept the Patriots from scoring on 10 of their 12 possessions. Tom Brady looked rattled in this matchup, and his stats show it. Tennessee was able to get sacks on Brady 3 times as well as 7 total quarterback pressures. They also forced 4 pass deflections. Brady ended the day, going 21-41 for 254 yards 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions with a quarterback rating of just 29.5.

In today’s game, Indianapolis will face an obviously talented Titans defense who rank towards the top in most categories. They rank 1st overall in points allowed per game (16.8), 6th in yards allowed per game (328), 6th in pass yards allowed per game (228.2), and 11th in run defense with 99.8 yards allowed per game.

This is a team that is built a lot like the Jacksonville Jaguars team we saw Indianapolis play last Sunday. Defensively, this is a team that has playmakers and recognizable names at every level. In the secondary, cornerbacks Adoree Jackson and Malcom Butler will try and keep Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton from getting in rhythm, in the linebacker group, names like Wesley Woodyard and Brian Orakpo will try and keep the talented Colts tight ends contained, and on the defensive line, tackles Jurrell Casey and Austin Johnson will attempt to break through Indianapolis’ #2 ranked offensive line.

The Titans also have another, more unfortunate commonality with the Jaguars. Outside of last week’s win, the Titans offense has ranked near the bottom of the NFL this season in most categories. They’ve only managed 15 offensive touchdowns this season, and four of those touchdowns came in last week’s game. In points per game, they rank 28th (18.7), in total yards per game they are 30th (299), their 184.6 pass yards per game ranks 30th, and lastly, they rank 14th in rushing yards per game with 114.4.

Now that we’re familiar with our opponent, let’s take a look at what the Colts’ stats look like going into this week. Indianapolis brings a dynamic offensive attack, with the ability to put up a lot of points. Currently, the Colts rank 6th in the NFL in points per game (28.9), and quarterback Andrew Luck is second in passing touchdowns with 26. Luck also has a nice touchdown streak going, as he has compiled 6 straight performances of 3 or more passing touchdowns. This streak has only been matched twice in NFL history by quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Other offensive numbers for the Colts include, 9th in total yards per game (379.8), 12th in passing yards per game (266.2), and 15th in rushing yards per game (113.6).

Defensively, the Colts have been kind of a mixed bag. They’ve shown this season that they can force a lot of turnovers, as they posted 5 in one game (vs Buffalo Bills), but they’ve also shown that they lack depth in the secondary, as they’ve yielded as many as 17 completions in a row to opposing quarterbacks (Derek Carr/ Oakland Raiders). They’ve been great at getting to the quarterback one week, but follow up with a zero pressure performance the next. It has been a bit puzzling and frustrating at times for fans like myself, and I’m sure the same can be said of the players and coaching staff. One defensive thing has been consistent over the Colts winning streak however. The ability to create clutch turnovers in the closing minutes has been there in every win. They dismantled the Bills 37-5, and every turnover was a momentum boost in that game, in the matchup vs the Oakland Raiders, it was defensive rookie of the year candidate Darius Leonard punching the ball from Doug Martin’s arms, and against Jacksonville, it was cornerback Kenny Moore III that forced a fumble on the Jaguars final drive to survive a comeback attempt in the final two minutes. Perhaps Frank Reich’s mantra of having, “an obsession to finish” is finally sinking in. These Colts are buying what Reich in selling, and that has been very evident during the past few games.

My prediction:

I find this matchup to be eerily similar to the game played just a week ago in Lucas Oil Stadium. The stats and style of play the Titans and Jaguars have is almost indistinguishable. I think if the Colts can get off to a fast start as they did last week, then they’ll have a very good shot at climbing the AFC South ladder to second place this week. I see both teams ending the day at 5-5 as I’ve got Indianapolis winning this one 28-17.

Photo Credit: Stacey Revere/Getty Images