Game Preview: Colts @ Jaguars

After their bye week and three straight home games, the Colts are taking their first road trip since traveling to Oakland in October. The forecast for tomorrow calls for thunderstorms in the Jacksonville area, so it will be interesting to see if the elements play a factor, especially for an indoor team like the Colts.

Since their week 10 matchup in Indianapolis, this Jaguars team has a wildly different look. Earlier this week, quarterback Blake Bortles was benched in favor of Cody Kessler, they fired their offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, Leonard Fournette landed a 1-game suspension after landing a couple punches against the Buffalo Bills, Guard Andrew Norwell was placed on the Injured Reserve, and last but not least, cornerback Jalen Ramsey is questionable (due to injury) to play after starting every game in his NFL career.

As you can see, that’s a lot of changes so I’ll break them down one at a time.

Bortles: Pulling Bortles this week is a bit puzzling to me because, Bortles has historically put up solid numbers against the Colts. Even in the week 10 loss, Bortles threw for 320 yards and 2 touchdowns. Bortles career stats against Indianapolis are 187 of 302, 61.9% completion percentage, 2384 yards, and 14:3 touchdown to interception ratio. He does have a losing record against the Colts overall (4-5), but boasts a 3-1 record in home games against Indy. Cody Kessler has one game of regular season action this year (against Houston Texans), and the results were so-so. On that day Kessler finished 21-30, for 1 touchdown, 1 interception, 1 fumble, and was sacked 4 times in a 20-7 defeat.

Nathaniel Hackett: After coaching a sixth ranked offense that propelled the Jaguars to the AFC championship, many people expected more out of Hackett this year. Unfortunately for him, his offense took a nosedive this year. Falling to 22nd overall in total offense, having to fight through numerous injuries, and overcome poor quarterback play, Hackett just couldn’t hack it in Jacksonville. This Sunday, his former duties will be taken over by quarterbacks coach and interim offensive coordinator Scott Milanovich.

Leonard Fournette: Well, it seems as if the Jaguars’ season of frustration materialized in the form of a Fournette fist fight last week. The second year running back, who has spent much of the season sidelined with a hamstring injury, lost his temper during a loss against the Buffalo Bills. Losing is tough at any point. Jacksonville started out 3-1, and had Super Bowl aspirations to begin the year, but they have now fallen to 3-8, and are in the mix for a top 10 draft pick. The raw emotion of that disappointment has reared it’s ugly head, and the Jaguars are no better for it.

Andrew Norwell: The highest paid guard in the NFL, will unfortunately be sidelined for the rest of the 2018 season. An ankle injury sustained in Sunday’s loss to the Buffalo Bills adds to the seemingly never ending list of injuries to the Jacksonville offensive line. Left tackle Cam Robinson, Center Brandon Linder, and backup left tackle Josh Wells were all critical losses. Norwell seems to be the final nail in the coffin for this beat up o-line. Good luck back there Cody Kessler!

Jalen Ramsey: One of the NFL’s most talented young cornerbacks could miss the first game of his career on Sunday. Starting the week off with back-to-back “Did Not Practice” designations, the All-Pro finally logged a limited practice on Friday. Ramsey will be listed as questionable, with no word on whether he will even be available.

The Colts are not without their own set of injuries this week. Jack Doyle’s season came to an end this week, as he suffered a kidney injury that came at the end of Indianapolis’ win against the Miami Dolphins. The tight end spot, which had been a great position for depth, became much more shallow this week. Tight end Mo Alie-Cox is listed as OUT for this week’s matchup as well. This leaves Indy with Eric Ebron, and either Ryan Hewitt or Eric Swoope to fill the TE2 gap. Center Ryan Kelly will miss this week as well. After sustaining a knee injury against Miami, Kelly was unable to practice all week. Quite a few names are listed on the “questionable” designation, but most names in the list should play. The biggest concern of the “questionable” list is probably running back Marlon Mack, who is making his way back from a concussion.

Now that you’re all caught up, let’s talk about this weekend’s game. With all of the changes that Jacksonville has endured just over the course of this week, I have trouble believing they’ll be as competitive as a Bortles-led team. Granted, Kessler has some playing time this year, but changing coordinators and having to deal will several key injuries/suspensions to offensive players will be Cody Kessler’s bane this weekend. I’ll be looking for Darius Leonard, Malik Hooker and the rest of the Colts’ defense to force several turnovers.

For the Colts offense, sticking to fundamentals and just finding a way to move the chains will be critical. It’s supposed to be rainy and sloppy and gross. This week Indianapolis has to protect the ball and figure out a way to be effective on the ground. I think the rain might slow down this fast paced offense a little bit, so maintaining possession with slow methodical drives will be imperative. Andrew Luck has thrown at least 3 touchdowns in 8 straight games. This week however, Luck might need to take a back seat to his running backs and let them keep the ball dry. In week 10, Colts running backs ran for 85 yards on 16 carries, including a big 53 yard scamper by Jordan Wilkins. They’ll need that kind of big play production this week against a defense that still ranks 9th overall.

I think this game might be a lot closer that many may want to believe. If the elements play a factor in this game, Indianapolis’ fast offense, may have to take what the conditions give them. That being said, I don’t think a banged up Cody Kessler-led offense out duels Andrew Luck and company. I’ve got Indianapolis winning their 6th straight to stay close behind Houston in the AFC South hunt.

Indianapolis: 24 Jacksonville: 13

Photo credit: Colts.com

Injury Update: Jack Doyle

Tight end Jack Doyle has been placed on the injured reserve with a season ending kidney injury. This is a tough loss for the Colts. After missing extended time with a hip injury earlier in the season, Doyle had come back to be an effective part of the Colts offense during their 5 game winning streak. Since returning against the Oakland Raiders on October 28th, Doyle had compiled 17 receptions for 165 yards and 2 touchdowns. While Doyle has been known to be an effective pass catcher, his true value is as a pass blocker. Pro Football Focus rated Doyle as the #1 pass blocking tight end in the NFL this season. Doyle finishes the year with 26 receptions, 245 yards, and 2 touchdowns.

Luckily for Indianapolis, they have good depth at the tight end position. Eric Ebron is having a career best year, as he’s racked up 11 receiving touchdowns (tied for first in NFL). Eric Swoope and Mo Alie-Cox have also been good in limited action. Alie-Cox has collected 6 receptions for 112 yards and 2 touchdowns on the year, while Swoope has come off the practice squad several times this season to grab 7 catches for 83 yards and 3 scores. Both Alie-Cox and Swoope were injured during last week’s game against Miami, but head coach Frank Reich is hopeful that at least one of the two returns this Sunday when the Colts face the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Photo Credit: Indianapolis Star

Week 12 preview: Colts vs Dolphins

After starting off the season 3-0, the Miami Dolphins have swum into colder waters since. Having dropped 4 of their last 5, they find themselves competing for a wildcard spot, and are two games behind the New England Patriots (7-3) in the AFC East. Miami is a bit hard to pin down. They’ve shown the ability to beat a top team like the Chicago Bears (who are 8-3), but have also been locked in tight battles or lost to sub-par teams like the Raiders and Lions. A lot of that probably has to do with Miami missing quarterback Ryan Tannehill who has not played since week 5 against the Cincinnati Bengals. Up to that point Tannehill was playing pretty solid football. In five games played, he’s logged just under 1,000 yards, 8 touchdown passes, and has completed over 65% of his passes. While Brock Osweiler was serviceable in Tannehill’s absence, I’m sure the Dolphins are happy to have their starter back under center. Despite the recent slide, this Miami Dolphins team is not without its playmakers.

On the defense, star linebacker Kiko Alonso is currently second in the NFL in combined tackles (89), which sits behind only the Colts’ own Darius Leonard (104). Alonso has been playing very well in pass coverage this season, as he has compiled 6 pass deflections as well as 3 interceptions. He has also forced 3 fumbles this year.

On the offensive side, the Dolphins have a solid left tackle in Leremy Tunsil, that will help protect Ryan Tannehill’s blind side. Tunsil hasn’t allowed a sack all season, but did miss last weeks’ matchup against the Green Bay Packers. We’ll see if the week off will do anything to dampen his stellar performance this year. This will also be a return to Indianapolis for veteran Frank Gore. Gore 528 yards on the ground this year and is averaging 4.5 yards per carry. While his yardage isn’t incredible this year, his ability hasn’t faded, and can’t be looked past by this Indianapolis defense.

For Indianapolis, they’ll be playing their third straight home game, and bring a four game winning streak into week 12. Right now, the Colts offense is firing on all cylinders, as they are averaging 36.5 points per game during their winning streak. The defense has also done their part, as they are giving up just 17.25 points per game and have forced 9 turnovers over the same stretch. There are multiple reasons for the Colts awakening from their 1-5 slumber. To start, Andrew Luck is playing MVP level football. Luck has 7 straight games of 3 or more passing touchdowns, and now has 29 touchdowns on the year.

One reason Luck’s stats are so good? The Indianapolis offensive line. The Colts have only given up 10 sacks this year (2nd in NFL and 1st in AFC). More impressive, is that they haven’t given up any sacks in the last 5 games. A clean pocket for Luck equals points on the board for the Colts. Another reason for the boost in Luck’s touchdown production is the excellent communication he has with Eric Ebron and the rest of his tight end group. Luck has connected 15 times for touchdowns to his tight ends, and a big part of that number is Eric Ebron having a career year. Ebron leads all NFL tight ends with 9 receiving touchdowns and also has 1 rushing touchdown.

As the Colts take the field today, they find themselves in a similar scenario as the Dolphins at this point in the season. Both teams are 5-5, both are tied for an AFC wildcard spot (with Titans, Bengals, and Ravens as well), and both are in second place in their respective divisions. The difference, is that Indianapolis is trending upwards, and Miami the opposite. As they meet at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday afternoon, both teams recognize this game could have major playoff implications.

My prediction: Miami has struggled on offense as of late. Averaging just 16 points over the last 3 games, Ryan Tannehill’s return couldn’t come at a better time. That being said, I don’t believe Tannehill will be able to cover up enough holes to keep the Indianapolis defense from collecting turnovers. The Colts defense has logged at least 1 turnover in every game this season, and I don’t think the Dolphins will put an end to that streak. The Colts offense is red hot right now, as they’re averaging over 36 points per game over their last 3. A hot offense paired with a defense who turns the ball over is a nightmare for opposing teams. I’ve got Indianapolis winning this one 34-20, and improving to 6-5 on the year.

Photo Credit: Andy Lyons/ Getty Images

Ebron scores hat trick; Colts hold off Jaguars comeback attempt to win 29-26

It was a tale of two halves in Sunday’s contest between the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars. Andrew Luck had the hot hand early, as he marched the Colts down the field on the games’ opening drive, completing passes to four different receivers. On Luck’s fourth completion, he hooked up with a wide open Eric Ebron. Ebron was able to tip toe the sideline and leap towards the pylon for the games’ first score. (the first of three Eric Ebron touchdowns on the day).

After a punt by each team, the Jaguars offense settled in to a quick, five play drive. Jacksonville quarterback Blake Bortles found former Colts receiver Donte Moncrief for an 80 yards strike to tie up the game. Moncrief would finish with 3 receptions 98 yards and that touchdown.

The Colts would answer quickly on the next drive, as Luck hooked up with wide receiver T.Y. Hilton and tight end Mo Alie-Cox for gains of 35 and 27 yards respectively to set the Colts up near the end zone. This allowed for a two yard touchdown run on 3rd and goal by Eric Ebron. The ensuing Adam Vinatieri extra point put the game at 14-7.

A quick series by the Jaguars ended in a punt, and the Colts took an opportunity to extend their lead on their next possession. Running back Jordan Wilkins would make the most of his only carry of the day, as he gashed the Jacksonville defense on a 53 yards run. An excellent pancake block by rookie Quenton Nelson sprung Wilkins for the huge chunk play. Two Andrew Luck completions later, Eric Ebron would find himself wide open for yet another touchdown. Ebron now has 39 receptions, 9 receiving touchdowns, and 10 total touchdowns on the year. Having already eclipsed his career best touchdown numbers, Ebron sets his sights on his best statistical season since entering the league as a first round pick in 2014.

The Jaguars followed the third Eric Ebron touchdown with a touchdown run by second year running back Leonard Fournette. The Josh Lambo point after attempt would be blocked and nearly returned by linebacker Anthony Walker, but the would be two points for Indianapolis were unfortunately called back due to a low block. The Indianapolis offense however, would take the energy of that blocked kick, and filter it into even more points. The Colts capped their 10 play, 75 yard drive with a passing touchdown from Andrew Luck to Mo Alie-Cox. A Jacksonville penalty on the point after attempt allowed for the Colts to try a two-point conversion from the 1 yard line. The Colts offensive line paved the way for running back Marlon Mack, as he slid between left tackle Anthony Castonzo and Left Guard Quenton Nelson for the successful two-point conversion. This put the game at 29-13.

Jacksonville used all but five seconds of the remaining time to sneak in a Josh Lambo field goal, as he knocked a 28 yarder through the uprights. A quick kneel down by the Colts offense took the game into the half with a score of 29-16. The second half wasn’t nearly as spectacular for Indianapolis. Jacksonville made several adjustments, and shut out Indianapolis for the final two quarters as they attempted to mount a comeback. Indy’s possessions looked awful on paper, as two punts, an interception, and a missed field goal kept the game interesting for the rest of the afternoon. Jacksonville opened the second half with an exhausting 17 play touchdown drive that lasted 8 minutes and 35 seconds. Leonard Fournette would score his second touchdown of the day on a 1 yard reception.

So, right out of the gate the Colts lead shrunk to just 6 points after leading by as much as 16. The next Indianapolis drive was a quick three and out, and Jacksonville regained possession at their 39 yard line. This drive would end with one of the key plays of this game, as Jacksonville kicker Josh Lambo missed a 52 yard field goal wide left, as the Colts maintained a 6 point lead.

Four plays later, a tipped pass would result in an interception by the Jaguars’ Telvin Smith. Fortunately for the Colts, the Blake Bortles led offense wasn’t able to capitalize on the turnover, as they were forced to punt on the ensuing possession. The lead would shrink by 3 more points on the next Jacksonville possession however, as Josh Lambo keyed in from long distance, and knocked a 55 yarder through the uprights. The next Indianapolis possession made Colts fans cringe, as Adam Vinatieri would have a rare miss in clutch time. Vinatieri shanked a 52 yarder wide right, and set up the Jaguars offense in excellent field position to stage an upset.

By this point in the game, the Jaguars offense was riding a wave of momentum, and moving quickly into scoring position. Inside two minutes, Blake Bortles completed a pass to wide receiver Rashad Greene, and suddenly magic happened. Cornerback Kenny Moore III, who had himself quite the day with two pass deflections, was able to rip the ball out of Greene’s hands at the last moment. A play that was initially called a reception and down by contact, was reviewed and showed Greene losing possession just before his knee hit the turf. Safety Malik Hooker pounced on top of the ball, as the Indianapolis defense made a clutch, game saving turnover. A few kneel downs later, and the Colts survived for their 3rd straight victory 29-26.

Keys to victory:

Fast start: The Indianapolis offense was able to keep Jacksonville on their heels for the entire first half. Finding multiple broken coverages that led to big chunk plays, the Indy offense sprinted out to a 16 point lead at one point.

Offensive line: For the fourth consecutive week, Andrew Luck has not taken a sack. This has been a breath of fresh air for Colts fans who saw the Colts give up a league high 56 sacks last year. Indy currently ranks 2nd in sacks allowed (10), just behind the New Orleans Saints with 9. Clearly, the choice to pick left guard Quenton Nelson at #6 overall is paying dividends. Nelson is looking like he’ll be a perennial all-pro.

Clutch defense: Blake Bortles found a way to be pretty consistent against this Colts defense. His final stat line was 26/38, 320 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions. So, what’s one of the best ways to stop an effective passer? Force turnovers on the receivers. The Indianapolis defense clawed and scratched at the ball all day with no success, but their persistence payed off late, as wide receiver Rashad Greene lost control of the ball deep in Indianapolis territory and cornerback Kenny Moore III forced a turnover on the play of the game.

Things to work on:

Stay consistent for 4 quarters: A great first half was nearly just that, because the Colts offense was stymied in the second. Two punts, an interception, and a missed field goal in the second half gave Jacksonville a fighting chance. A win is a win, but if Indy hopes to keep the streak going and make a playoff push, they’ll need to have the, “obsession to finish” that head coach Frank Reich has preached since training camp.

Kicking game: I don’t know what’s up with Adam Vinatieri lately, but he doesn’t seem himself. A case of the yips? Injury? Old age? At any rate, he hasn’t been as clutchy as in years past. With the playoffs looming, and many teams competing for a wildcard spot, a missed kick could mean not playing playoff football in January.

Rookie Mistakes: Momentum is a very real thing in football. It energizes fans and players alike. So, when a rare blocked and returned extra point happens, you get pumped! However, when that same return is called back for an unnecessary low block, you scream at your television, because that penalty wiped out a 3 point swing on the scoreboard. If the Colts want to be a playoff team, they need to play smart in all three phases (offense, defense, and special teams).

Next week, another divisional opponent comes to Indianapolis. The Tennessee Titans are coming off an impressive dismantling of the New England Patriots 34-10. The Titans have the top ranked defense In points against (16.8), and rank in the top 10 in several other defensive categories. The good news for the Colts, is that the Titans offense ranks in the bottom 3 in most categories. This team is built a lot like the Jaguars, and will be another tough matchup for this Indianapolis team. Kickoff is scheduled for 1pm eastern time next Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Photo Credit : Getty Images