Fresh off of a 27-26 pre-season victory against the Bengals in Cincinnati, the Colts and Bengals will battle in the regular season opener in Indianapolis. Last year, these two teams played a very competitive regular season game that ultimately ended in a heart wrenching loss for the Colts. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett and Tight End Jack Doyle were on the same page in that matchup, as Doyle had a huge 12 reception game with 121 yards and a touchdown from 13 yards out. Unfortunately, Doyle’s big game would be spoiled in the final minutes. Leading 23-17 with seven minutes left in the game, Jacoby Brissett throws a pass that gets tipped, intercepted, and returned for a touchdown. The Bengals would kick the extra point, and take the lead. From that point, the Colts were unable to get into field goal range, as the Bengals escaped with a narrow victory 24-23.

This year, the Bengals will have to deal with an Indianapolis team with a far different look from last year. Andrew Luck’s long awaited return comes after a 20 month shoulder surgery rehabilitation, and Luck looks ready to go. The Colts’ preseason game against the San Francisco 49ers two weeks ago, served as the regular season dress rehearsal. In that matchup, Luck went 8-10 for 90yards and a touchdown throw to offseason free agent acquisition Eric Ebron. Luck also showed that he is still very mobile, as he rushed for 27 yards.

There are still a few question marks surrounding the Colts as we head into opening weekend. The first is the offensive line. A group that gave up a league high 56 sacks in 2017, will look to tighten up this year. During the off-season, linemen were the priority. Drafting guards Quenton Nelson (Round 1 Pick 6) and Braden Smith (Round 2 Pick 5), as well as dipping into free agency to pick up veteran guard Matt Slauson. On paper, this offensive line looks like one of, if not the best offensive line that Andrew Luck has played behind in his career. That being said, it’s not too much of a compliment considering Colts offensive lines of the past.

Question mark number two is the wide receiver group. With the departure of veteran Donte Moncrief (now with Jacksonville Jaguars), the Colts WR depth was simply nonexistent. The Colts did sign Ryan Grant (previously with Washington Redskins) and drafted two receivers (Daurice Fountain and Deon Cain); However, each of these receivers have faced their downsides this season. Ryan Grant was said to have had an excellent training camp by numerous reporters and Colts staff, but unfortunately that never translated during game time in the preseason. Grant only caught 1 pass for 17 yards. As eyebrow raising as this might seem, Grant is still holding on to the number two receiver spot on the depth chart. This is likely due to lack of competition. As for the two draft picks, Fountain failed to make the roster, but has cleared waivers to be retained on the Colts practice squad. Cain on the other hand had a great training camp, but unfortunately tore his ACL during his only preseason action against the Seattle Seahawks. Cain was placed on the Injured Reserve list, and hopes to return to full strength in 2019. Luckily, the style of offense that Colts Head Coach Frank Reich brings in from Philadelphia will feature more Tight End and Running Back involvement in the receiving game. This will hopefully take the pressure away from the lack of depth at the wide receiver position.

The final question mark I have for this week is the defense. The transition away from Chuck Pagano’s 3-4, to new Defensive Coordinator Matt Eberflus’ 4-3 scheme will be interesting to watch. Many wonder if the Colts will be able to effectively move to a 4-3 with so many of Pagano’s players still in place on the defense. The defense seems very patchy at most positions. Defensive End Jabaal Sheard, Safeties Malik Hooker and Matthias Farley, and Cornerback Quincy Wilson seem to be the only bright spots in an otherwise forgettable Colts defense. In week 1, the Colts face a big test in the secondary trying to cover pro bowl wide , receiver A.J. Green, and the speedy John Ross, while also having to worry about veteran Tight End Tyler Eifert. Up front, the defensive line will try and slow down second year running back Joe Mixon, who many believe is poised for a breakout season.

Overall, I think that the Colts have done enough over the offseason to get this victory. A new coaching regime, Andrew Luck’s return, and electric home crowd will be the difference in this matchup.

My prediction: Colts 27 Bengals 17

This time a year ago, the Indianapolis Colts were in a state of disarray. Their owner (Jim Irsay), GM (Chris Ballard), and ex head coach (Chuck Pagano) had many of us buying in to the belief that Andrew Luck would return before the end of the 2017 season. As we all know now, that day never came. The Colts stumbled out of the gate and never recovered. Very few bright spots were found in a disappointing campaign, where they ended their season 4-12 and a 3rd place finish in the AFC South. Out of all the heartache that Colts fans endured last season, there are still a few positives to take solace in while heading into 2018.

The first of three pros in this list is probably the most obvious. The most important piece of the Colts puzzle was missing in 2017. Andrew Luck returns to the field this Sunday against Cincinnati after a grueling 20 month wait since his last regular season appearance. That was 2016, a year in which Luck finished his season with 4,240 yards passing, 31 touchdowns through the air, 13 interceptions, and 96.4 quarterback rating. His play helped elevate that of his teammate T.Y. Hilton as well. Hilton’s 1,448 receiving yards led the league in 2016, as he beat the likes of Julio Jones (Atlanta Falcons), and Odell Beckham Jr. (New York Giants). The ability that Luck had in 2016 was nothing short of impressive, especially when you take into account that he suffered through the entire season with that shoulder injury that kept him out all of 2017. Looking at 2016’s end result(a so-so 8-8 record), it hardly seems worth the wait to get that shoulder surgically repaired. You know the old saying though, “hindsight is 20-20”. In 2018, with a full recovery made, an optimistic attitude, and a little bit of a chip on his shoulder (pun absolutely intended), Andrew Luck looks to return to the elite status that he’s capable of.

The second pro is the complete coaching staff overhaul. Over the last three seasons, ex head coach Chuck Pagano went just 20-28. We could say that many of the losses could be chalked up to a bad injury bug that resulted in a wheel of quarterbacks during the 2015 season. We could also say that friction between Pagano and then GM Ryan Grigson led to poor draft and free agency decisions. At any rate, the last three years of Colts football has been rough for fans to endure. It has been a far cry from the progression that seemed to be showing during Andrew Luck’s first three years in the NFL. The AFC Championship appearance in 2014 is now a distant memory, and Pagano and the Colts have parted ways.

Now we have a familiar face leading the charge. Frank Reich, last year’s Super Bowl winning offensive coordinator, will take the helm. While many football fans easily recognize his Philadelphia Eagles affiliation, they may not recognize that he has actually been with the Colts before. In fact, he began his professional coaching career with Indianapolis in 2006. Starting out as a coaching intern, he worked his way up the ladder to become an offensive assistant in 2008. From there, Reich would be named Quarterbacks Coach in 2009. 2009 was a success for Reich, as Peyton Manning earned League MVP honors. Reich held that position until the end of 2010, and transitioned to Receivers Coach in 2011 where he managed to coach Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garçon to 70 plus receptions and 900 yards receiving, despite having Manning on the sidelines all year due to a neck injury. After the 2011 season Reich traveled throughout the NFL, making coaching stops in Arizona, San Diego, and Philadelphia before finally returning back to where it all began in Indianapolis. He brings back a little nostalgia, and with last year’s Super Bowl victory, a reason for Colts fans to feel hopeful for the future.

Lastly, we’ll take a look at some analytics, and why last year’s stats may bring optimism to Colts fans for the 2018 season. The number 6 is notable from last season. This is the number of games that the Colts lost by a touchdown or less. Four of those games were by 4 points or less. We can speculate what might have been for Indianapolis if they had their starting QB, or had their premier rookie safety Malik Hooker not been injured most of the season, or had they fixed the offensive line, which would go on to give up a league high 56 sacks (including 10 in a single game to Jacksonville). This year, there’s a lot to be excited about. A fresh new coaching staff, a revamped offensive line that features first round draft pick Quenton Nelson, and a reasonably healthy Colts roster going into week one. Not to mention a significant change to the defense, as Defensive Coordinator Matt Eberflus helps them transition to a 4-3 scheme, and of course the return of Andrew Luck. These aren’t the Colts of the last three seasons. These Colts look dedicated, determined, and hungry for victory.